[168TEX News] Caprolactam is one of the most important raw materials in the chemical fiber industry. As a superior raw material for nylon chips, its decline has been obvious in the past two years.
First of all, the cost-side support is insufficient, and the general trend is mainly downward. According to analysis, the trend of caprolactam is mainly determined by the trend of raw material pure benzene and downstream demand. In the past two years, the raw material pure benzene has followed the trend of crude oil and adopted a volatile and declining rhythm, steadily reducing its price. Caprolactam has also followed the trend of crude oil and pure benzene and entered the downward channel due to the continuous decline in the center of gravity of the cost end and its own adaptation to market demand, and it is difficult to stop.
The above pictures show the trend of caprolactam from 2014 to 2016. From the picture, it can be clearly seen that the downward path of caprolactam in this wave roughly follows the trend of crude oil and pure benzene. At the same time, we can also clearly see that as long as it encounters the traditional peak seasons of the downstream weaving industry, such as gold three, silver four and gold nine and silver ten, caprolactam can rebound slightly and continue to be strong for a period of time, and then continue to reverse and go down. It is not difficult to find that the traditional peak season of downstream weaving still has a great impact on the consumption of caprolactam and its price.
Currently, the downstream peak season is over, and caprolactam has returned to the four-digit range. At present, the traditional peak season of the downstream textile market has come to an end, and the nylon yarn market has gradually shown signs of slowing down production and sales. Caprolactam has been adjusted downward due to insufficient buying momentum from downstream manufacturers. It is understood that the downstream demand was still good in early May, especially in the nylon yarn market. The main operation continued to be around 80%, with some parts operating at full capacity. However, in the middle of May, the downstream demand obviously weakened, and the nylon yarn market showed a slight downward trend. The load of nylon chips has recently been adjusted from 80% to 70%. Therefore, against the background of weakening downstream production and sales, the caprolactam market fell into the 4-digit range.
In fact, since the end of December last year, caprolactam has dropped from a five-digit operating range to a four-digit range. As a result, from January to early March this year, caprolactam fluctuated between 9,200-9,550 yuan/ton. After mid-March, the downstream market began to recover, driving up the consumption of nylon raw materials. Caprolactam entered a period of booming production and sales, and its price continued to rise, returning from 4 digits to 5 digits. However, as soon as the downstream peak season is over, the price of caprolactam returns to 4 digits.
At present, some caprolactam companies are optimistic about the market outlook. In early May, Shijiazhuang Refining and Chemical responded to market supply. The load of its 100,000 tons/year production line dropped to 80%. It was originally operating at full capacity and had a daily output of 300 tons. In addition, Baling Petrochemical also takes advantage of the off-season period for production and sales to conduct maintenance on its lower production lines. It is reported that its 300,000 tons/year caprolactam production line will begin maintenance in turns after late May, and the market supply will then drop in due course.
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