[168TEX News] In the first quarter, the operating income and net profit of the three PTA giants, Hengyi Petrochemical, Rongsheng Petrochemical, and Tongkun Petrochemical, all increased significantly; as soon as such an eye-catching “report card” came out, PTA once again became the focus of attention. . Especially since April, PTA’s performance in both futures and spot markets has been remarkable.
PTA futures have hit daily limits, breaking through the 5,000 mark
In terms of futures, the PTA futures market is also rising. Pulled up by long funds, the PTA market price continues to rise due to pressure, and the market trading volume has increased. Among them, the main contract 1609 strongly broke through the 5,000 yuan/ton mark on the 21st. After that, there were consecutive daily limit increases in many trading days. As of the 29th, the main 1609 contract closed at 5,012 yuan/ton, which was the same as the end of February. Compared with the price, the price has increased significantly by nearly 548 yuan/ton, an increase of 12.28%.
PTA spot prices climbed steadily, turning losses into profits
PTA futures are highly dependent on spot prices. Under the influence of futures, the spot market has been rising steadily recently. After the quotation center of PTA spot market rose to the level of 4,500 yuan/ton at the end of last month, although it experienced slight fluctuations in early April, it continued its upward trend, rising all the way to close to the 5,000 yuan/ton mark. With the increase in price focus, the cash flow situation of PTA manufacturers has also been effectively improved. In the middle period, they entered the profit queue, and their profits surged to the level of 100 yuan.
The PTA futures spot market is moving forward in such a high-profile manner, which is largely due to the sharp rise in upstream international oil prices, boosted by hitting new highs during the year, as well as the support of good polyester demand and improved supply relations. However, it is still difficult to “reach the sky”. Nowadays, pressure from all parties in the market is sweeping across, and a bitter war of nerves may once again sweep the PTA market.
The first thing to bear the brunt is the pressure on PTA production load to increase. The current average operating rate of the PTA market is concentrated around 61.6%, and the real-time operating rate is 60.0% (the current production capacity base has increased to 48.84 million tons). If the long-term suspended production capacity (12.7 million tons) is removed, the current real-time operating rate is approximately at 81.1%. With Taiwan Chemical’s 1.2 million-ton unit restarting ahead of schedule, Yadong Petrochemical’s 750,000-ton plant recently restarted after a brief shutdown, and Hanbang Phase II will also be scheduled to be tested in the short term; an increase in PTA production load in the future is inevitable. The increase in the operating rate of the PTA market will naturally exert certain pressure on the market from the supply side.
The second is the uncertainty of international oil prices. Suppressed by the abortion of the production freeze agreement in the early stage, crude oil prices fell sharply; in recent days, there has been a lot of good news in the international oil market, which has played a positive role in the trend of oil prices. Not only did it violently recover the early decline, but it also rose sharply by nearly 8%. level, oil prices once again hit a new high for the year. However, the current international crude oil market is still in a state of flux, with fierce competition between long and short forces, and uncertainty about the market outlook, which may suppress the upward pace of PTA to a certain extent.
The most important thing is the weakening of demand in the downstream polyester market. Towards the end of the month, the rising trend of polyester filament has come to an end. With the May Day holiday approaching, the downstream weaving market is also about to usher in a wave of production suspensions and holidays. For the procurement of raw polyester filament Initiatives will gradually slow down. The weakening of downstream polyester market demand also directly affects the fluctuation of the PTA market price. Nowadays, the “Gold, Three, Silver and Four” period in the textile market is coming to an end, and whether the “Red May” market can continue remains to be verified by the market. <br /
