Foreign trade situation report released: Three factors promote export stabilization and improvement
Abstract: On November 2, the General Affairs Department of the Ministry of Commerce and the Institute of International Trade and Economic Cooperation jointly released the “China’s Foreign Trade Situation Report (Autumn 2016)” (hereinafter referred to as the “Report”). It is believed that in the first three quarters of 2016, my country’s foreign trade The overall trend is stabilizing and improving, new momentum for foreign trade development is accumulating, and the trade structure is further optimized. The “Report” predicts that based on various factors, my country’s import and export is expected to stabilize and improve throughout 2016. 20
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NovemberOn November 2, the General Affairs Department of the Ministry of Commerce and the International Trade and Economic Cooperation Research The “Report on China’s Foreign Trade Situation (Autumn 2016)” jointly released by the Academy of Sciences (hereinafter referred to as the “Report”) believes that in the first three quarters of 2016, my country’s foreign trade showed an overall trend of stabilization and improvement, new momentum for foreign trade development is accumulating, and the trade structure advanced optimization. The “Report” predicts that based on various factors, my country’s import and export is expected to stabilize and improve throughout 2016. In 2017, the situation faced by my country’s foreign trade development is still severe and complex, with many unstable and uncertain factors. At the same time, my country’s foreign trade is at a critical stage of accelerating structural adjustment and the continuous transformation of new and old driving forces. The fundamentals of long-term improvement have not changed. .
Three Factors promote the stabilization and improvement of exports
The “Report” pointed out that since the beginning of this year, trade has been at a low period in the past 30 years, and my country’s foreign trade development is facing unprecedented pressure. Data show that in the first three quarters of this year, my country’s total import and export value in RMB terms was 17.53 trillion yuan, a decrease of 1.9% from the same period in 2015. But at the same time, the decline in my country’s import and export in the first three quarters narrowed quarter by quarter. In RMB terms, imports and exports increased by 1.1% in the third quarter, 8.3 percentage points and 1.3 percentage points higher than those in the first and second quarters respectively.
Passed According to the analysis of the “Report”, three major factors have contributed to the stabilization of import and export. First, in recent years, the Chinese government has introduced a series of policies and measures to support the steady growth of foreign trade and adjust the structure. They are highly targeted and valuable. The continuous release of policy effects has effectively reduced the burden on enterprises, enhanced their confidence, and stimulated the vitality of import and export enterprises. . Second, since 2016, my country’s economic operation has been generally stable, making progress while maintaining stability, and improving while maintaining stability. The export industry structure has been optimized, international competitiveness has been continuously improved, and domestic demand has rebounded, driving an increase in imports. Third, the overall level of international commodity prices has recovered moderately amid fluctuations, which has significantly contributed to the growth of imports. Judging from monthly data, imports have achieved positive growth for two consecutive months in August and September.
The report also emphasized that my country’s import and export in the first three quarters also showed the characteristics of continuous accumulation of new momentum for foreign trade, private enterprises becoming the main force in exports, and moving towards “optimal import and excellent export”. Among them, the development of general trade is better than that of the whole, and the ability of my country’s foreign trade enterprises to independently explore the international market has been further enhanced. At the same time, the status of private enterprises in my country’s foreign trade development has further improved. In the first three quarters, my country’s private enterprises exported 4.68 trillion yuan, an increase of 2.3%, accounting for 46.5% of the total export value, exceeding the export proportions of foreign-invested enterprises and state-owned enterprises respectively, becoming The main force in exports. In addition, the export of some high-tech products grew rapidly, with exports of materials technology and aerospace technology products increasing by 10% and 12.3% respectively.
In addition In the first three quarters, international bulk commodity imports continued to increase in volume and fall in price, which not only saved foreign exchange expenditures, but also helped enterprises reduce costs and increase efficiency. In addition, my country’s trade with traditional markets was clearly differentiated in the first three quarters. Sino-US bilateral trade fell by 3.3%, while bilateral trade between China and Europe and China and Japan increased by 2.7% and 2.9% respectively. my country’s exports to some countries related to the “Belt and Road” have maintained good momentum. Growth momentum.
Foreign trade The structure is further optimized
When predicting the foreign trade situation for the whole year of 2016, the “Report” believes that the low-speed economic growth in the fourth quarter will not change, and the downward trend of trade remains serious. However, taking into account domestic and foreign factors, China’s import and export is still expected to stabilize and improve through unremitting efforts.
From Looking at the international situation, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) newly predicts that the full-year economic growth will be 3.1%, 0.1 percentage points lower than 2015, and lower than the long-term average of 3.7% for the fifth consecutive year. Insufficient effective demand in developed economies, slowing recovery, and rising trade protectionism, “reversal” and populist trends not only affect short-term economic growth, but also cause damage to long-term potential growth rates. The impact of Brexit continues to ferment, adding new uncertainties to the economy.
From Looking at the domestic situation, the national economy has been operating generally smoothly and steadily in the first three quarters.�New momentum for foreign trade development
When looking forward to my country’s foreign trade development prospects next year, the “Report” believes that there are many unfavorable factors such as the economic recovery is still fragile, the international trade pattern continues to evolve profoundly, the “reversal” is heating up, and the international trade and investment environment is deteriorating.
By It can be seen that the situation faced by my country’s foreign trade development in 2017 is still severe and complex, but it is also at a critical stage of accelerating structural adjustment and the continuous transformation of new and old driving forces. The long-term positive fundamentals have not changed. Accordingly, the “Report” points out that as policies related to stabilizing foreign trade growth and adjusting the structure continue to take effect, and the transformation and upgrading process of import and export enterprises accelerates, my country’s foreign trade market share is expected to remain basically stable in 2017, and its status as a major country in the import and export of goods continues to be consolidated. Efficiency continues to improve and trade structure continues to be optimized. The “Report” believes that the new situation and new requirements faced by foreign trade development require efforts to accelerate the cultivation of new momentum for foreign trade development and promote the transformation and upgrading of foreign trade.
When talking about the foreign trade situation in 2017, Li Jian pointed out that the overall situation next year is not optimistic, but some positive factors will still promote foreign trade to maintain a certain growth. He said that there is still a lot of work to be done to promote the stabilization and improvement of foreign trade. On the one hand, we must unswervingly implement the strategy of opening up to the outside world. By expanding opening up, we will promote domestic enterprises to enhance their vitality and improve their level of participation in international division of labor and competition; on the other hand, we must promote the further optimization of the foreign trade commodity structure and trade development structure. Accelerate the transfer of some processing trade projects from my country’s coastal areas to the inland. By insisting on opening up to the outside world and adhering to innovative development, our participation in the international division of labor and competition has reached a higher level.
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