On the 23rd, the last solar term of summer, “Great Heat”, officially debuts, which means the “steaming mode” is on, and the hottest time is coming! In sharp contrast to the hot weather, the polyester market is “fresh and dull”.
PTA, which dominates the market, has dropped by the limit for two consecutive days, and ethylene glycol has continued to consolidate weakly. Moreover, since the 10th, the production and sales of polyester filament have remained low, with the average level at 3- 40%, the overall inventory of polyester has increased to about 14-23 days!
The hot summer meets the off-season, and the upstream polyester is also “not strong”. So how is the textile market? Let’s listen to what the textile workers have to say:
Textile worker A:I work in the reversing workshop, and I have been doing the right shift before. , starting last month, all the people in our shifts were moved to three shifts. The workshop was very busy last year, and the director has been focusing on production. This year, there is obviously not much work in the factory. In the past, I had to apply for leave a few days in advance and write a leave note. Now, all requests for one month are approved.
Trader B: The market is not good this year. We only do domestic trade. The number of orders received in the first half of the year was about 50% less than that of the whole year. There are no large orders, there are mostly scattered small orders, and now there is no life. Let’s not mention July and August. The market situation in the first half of the year was so bad that some textile factories in the surrounding areas have been suspended for a month! The Spring Festival will be celebrated in January early next year. How can the market get better next?
Weaver C: The global economy is in recession this year. It can only be said that this is an economic cycle, and consumer demand has also changed, so business More difficult to do. The market suddenly exploded last year. I think there are signs of false prosperity. Many manufacturers may be clearing last year’s inventory. Our company’s newly developed polyester yarn-dyed shirt fabric could sell hundreds of thousands of meters last year, but this year it can only sell hundreds of thousands of meters. Last year our company’s orders could be scheduled until October, but this year we can only do it this month. We are now focusing on new product development and hope to make breakthroughs in the second half of the year.
It is also the off-season for textiles. Last year, “the off-season was not weak”, but this year it is “the off-season is even weaker”. In fact, there are similarities and differences between them.
Same points
The uncertain outlook for Sino-US trade makes it difficult to place orders!
Since last year, Sino-US relations have been in a volatile stage, and the prospects are confusing, which has affected my country’s textile export share to the United States. Many US orders have begun to adopt a wait-and-see attitude and are cautious in placing orders. , the problem of how tariffs digest each other is also difficult to solve.
Differences
1.PTA affects the textile market to the left or right!
Whether it is this year or last year, the weaving market has been affected by PTA, but the difference is that starting from April last year, PTA began to continue to rise, driving the weaving market. Market conditions are starting to improve. In July, PTA futures hit a new high in the middle of the year, with the main contract closing at about 5,936 yuan/ton, which also drove the internal price of PTA to rise to about 6,600 yuan/ton. The main force of polyester, PTA, began to rise step by step. Weaving manufacturers were “driven” and began to produce continuously, and the appearance of an outbreak of market conditions began to appear.
This year, PTA has skyrocketed and plummeted, and the weather is uncertain. Downstream weaving manufacturers are even more afraid to stock up on goods during the off-season, and market confidence is even more lacking.
2. Polyester filament price Influence buyers’ desire to purchase!
Last year, driven by the strong support of PTA, the price of polyester filament began to soar. Within a day, the quotations of various manufacturers generally increased by 50-400 yuan, polyester FDY 75D/ The quoted price of 36F is as high as 10,700 yuan/ton, and weaving manufacturers are still selling and hoarding goods for production.
In July this year, the price of polyester filament increased following the surge in PTA, but weaving manufacturers did not buy it. The production and sales of polyester filament continued to be sluggish, and raw material manufacturers had no choice but to lower prices. The current quotation of polyester FDY 75D/36F is around 8,550 yuan/ton, which is a significant decrease of about 2,150 yuan/ton compared with last year.
3. This year’s gray fabric inventory has reached a 2-year high!
Last year, after environmental protection policies were tightened and measures such as production restrictions, stoppages, and power rations were implemented, the average operating rate of looms in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was around 80%. However, due to the market The market is good, and the inventory of gray fabrics is only about 25 days. Although this year, environmental protection efforts are not as strong as last year, the inventory of gray fabrics has increased to about 42 days, which has reached a 2-year high! Judging from the current market situation, there is a high probability that gray fabric inventory will only rise but not fall.
In fact, July and August themselves are the traditional off-season, but because the market was better in the off-season last year, it formed a sharp contrast. The main reason for this year’s off-season to be even weaker is excessive overcapacity.
Last year, environmental protection policies began to be tightened, and many textile companies began to move to northern Jiangsu, Anhui and other places. Land was purchased, a factory was built, machines were arranged, and capacity was expanded. However, since production had just started, the production capacity was not released all at once. But this year, peripheral production capacity suddenly became prominent, and production capacity exploded! The water in the water glass overflowed, so naturally there was no time to drink. The market conditions could not keep up with the explosion of production capacity, and were “held back” by the production capacity, making it difficult for the market to climb up.
At the same time, when overcapacity first appeared, weaving manufacturers did not have a sense of vigilance. Instead, they held a “lucky” mentality and expected that the peak season would come and the inventory could be eliminated. However, the reality is always skinny. , in the context of the global economic downturn, the textile industry has encountered “Waterloo”, and in the off-season, news of production reductions, production suspensions, holidays, etc. are constantly coming.
In fact, the market last year was mainly affected by the PTA Affected by the strong upward trend, weaving manufacturers ignored the market rules and blindly produced. A large amount of gray fabrics that could not be digested directly accumulated until this year, which overdrawn this year’s textile market in advance.
On the other hand, last year, under the influence of good market conditions and the mentality of buying up rather than buying down, weaving manufacturers increased their purchases of raw materials. Last year, the inventory of polyester filament reached a historical low, with the average level Only 4.5 days. The raw materials hoarded by weaving manufacturers are constantly being produced, but the sales speed of gray fabrics is not that fast. Over time, the inventory of polyester filament has been transferred to the inventory of weaving enterprises, causing the inventory of weaving enterprises to be overwhelmed.
Although the current textile market is not satisfactory, the probability of the “Golden Nine and Silver Ten” coming seems to be low. But the off-season is also a turning point in “survival of the fittest”. As a textile person, after experiencing the market conditions last year and this year, do you have anything to say?
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