Data monitored by the China Silk City Network shows that August this year, which was supposed to be the off-season for textiles, turned out to be different: the prices of bulk textile raw materials, market transaction volume, and social inventories all showed a warming trend. Based on this, many market participants speculate that this is an advance of orders, so this year’s “Golden Nine and Silver Ten” may cool down.
But now, the “Golden Nine” is coming to an end, and the market is still hot. Whether it is raw materials or fabrics, some specifications of products are even hard to find, and prices are frequently raised.
However, behind this appearance, the editor noticed that buyers and sellers seemed to be in a contradictory situation: on the one hand, the raw materials were at a relatively high level in history, leaving buyers confused about whether to buy them; on the other hand, due to environmental protection factors, Due to the impact, the operating rate of looms is lower than that of the same period last year, and there are still looms to be eliminated in the market outlook, leaving raw material manufacturers to wonder whether to sell them. Facing the next market trend, more and more people seem to be “seeing flowers in the mist”!
▼Recently, the production and sales of polyester factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang areas have been between 60% and 80%, and the overall enthusiasm for downstream purchasing is not high.
▼On the 25th, the market held another POY4+2 meeting, which stimulated the enthusiasm of downstream purchasing. Especially POY production and sales exploded, with the average production and sales of the polyester market reaching 200%.
Raw materials: Large households are hoarding goods, while small households are rushing for goods
After entering September, the inventory of polyester filament, the mainstream product of bulk textile raw materials, has also dropped again and again…
According to statistics, the current overall polyester market inventory is around 5-15 days; FDY inventory is around 4-7 days, POY inventory is adjusted to around 3-5 days, and DTY inventory is concentrated around 15-23 days.
For many raw material merchants, this time last year, a lot of silk was a “hot potato” that could not be sold, but now many raw material merchants do not have much inventory on hand. “There are still a lot of purchases in the market, especially 60/24, The two specifications of 137/96 can be used to make spandex super-soft fabrics.” said Mr. Wu, a raw material salesperson in Jiangsu.
“In the past, every time I stocked up on raw materials, I would rack my brains to find customers and offer discounts, only to worry that the inventory could not be sold. When silk prices fell, the inventory devalued.” Mr. Chen, who owns looms and trades raw materials, said, “The situation has obviously changed now. The sales of gray fabrics are very good, all the machines are in full operation, and the purchased raw materials are not enough to be digested internally.”
In the context of the market’s “price increase theory” and “shortage theory”, low inventory has become a normal situation in the polyester filament market this year. There are even crazy rumors in the market that “many large households are stocking up, and small households are using The argument of grabbing goods at high prices.
Grey cloth: Prices soar, take the cloth in cash
Judging from the current gray fabric market, the market situation of “Golden Nine” can be said to be certain. The overall market situation of major textile clusters is improving, orders have increased significantly, and dyeing factories are very busy!
The current market transaction volume is significantly higher than that in the previous period. The mainstream transactions in the market are autumn and winter clothing fabrics. The inquiry atmosphere of downstream buyers and traders is good. Orders for high-density and thin fabrics are increasing one after another. Some varieties are either out of stock or the price has risen, especially polyester. For products such as taffeta and pongee, it is reported that 320T gallbladder has recently increased significantly, and 290T polyester taffeta has also increased to a certain extent. As for 290T polyester taffeta, it has risen from 2.10 to 2.45 yuan/meter this year, an increase of about 15%. For low-end products that have always been in the market, this increase makes other products “envyful”.
“Looking at the current prices, it feels like they can’t go back down. During this period, raw materials have been rising, and the price of gray fabrics has also increased. Especially in July and August, we were very passive in trading, and the price of gray fabrics rose too much. , the market still has no goods, many of us buy goods in cash, and the financial pressure is relatively high. Now this phenomenon has eased slightly, but many weaving manufacturers still require cash to buy goods.” said Mr. Zhang, who sells conventional cold-proof fabrics in Shengze area.
However, what is different from previous years is that this year is a year of environmental protection, so the two links of printing, dyeing and water spraying have been greatly affected. Many merchants said that the delivery time has been greatly extended. “Now when placing an order, the delivery time is generally negotiated within 20 days.” It will take about 40 days,” Mr. Zhang said.
Purchaser: Should I buy it or not?
In fact, with regard to the rising prices of raw materials and hot sales of fabrics, it should be said that it is a “hello, me, everyone” situation. However, recently, many textile people have been very “hesitant” when purchasing: it was supposed to be the National Day, Should we stock up on goods during the Mid-Autumn Festival?
The owner of a weaving factory in Wujiang said that he would still be cautious about stocking up. Even if the market is good, he would still get more raw materials to meet the immediate needs. He is afraid that if he stocked up too much, he would “shoot himself in the foot” in the future; while another company because of this The person in charge of a weaving factory that produces polyester taffeta and is a popular weaving manufacturer also said that the stocking cycle is about a week and they will not stock too much.
certainly, driven by the current hot market, there are still many weaving factory owners rushing into raw material factories and paying directly to sell goods, provided that there is “goods” to buy. Nowadays, the enthusiasm for rising raw materials in the upstream has begun to ease, but the market is still enveloped in the enthusiasm of “buy, buy, buy”. Stocking operations are carried out from time to time. The polarization of the market has begun to become obvious. Hot-selling products continue to be “stocked up”, and slow-selling products have begun to base inventory…
Finally, the editor would like to say that there is no need to worry about soaring raw material prices in the short term. The current market situation is completely different from 2008, when domestic demand began to explode. Weaving manufacturers should not adopt radical stockpiling strategies and should not blindly stockpile goods. They need to stay calm. !
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