Introduction: Due to the excessive processing difference, the need for profit-taking and the intervention of some counter-arbitrage funds, PTA has experienced a weak correction in the short term, with insufficient cost support. After July, the shipments of terminal weaving enterprises have shown a weakening trend. In addition, the cloth It is difficult for prices to continue to rise, and many raw materials purchased are resisting high prices. After the production and sales of the polyester chip market continued to be slow, factory quotations were successively lowered by 50-100 yuan/ton, and the market transaction center became weaker.
Although July was in the traditional off-season for consumption, with the strong rise in the polyester raw material market, the polyester chip market also saw a sharp rise. Subsequently, the polyester raw material market rebounded after a surge, and the polyester chip market also weakened accordingly. The monthly fluctuation range is large, at 700-800 yuan/ton. At the beginning of the month, cost pressure on polyester chip factories increased while inventories were at low levels. Mainstream factories actively pushed up ex-factory quotations by 50-100 yuan/ton. Downstream chip spinning companies stocked up appropriately. The polyester chip market produced and sold volumes, and the market transaction focus increased. In the middle of the month, the polyester raw material PTA futures hit the limit, the spot market rose sharply, and the cost support was strong. The polyester chip market actively followed the rise, and the market transaction focus rose sharply. At the end of the month, polyester raw materials PTA and ethylene glycol entered a correction period. The overall trend of the raw material market was weak, cost support was insufficient, and the trading atmosphere in the polyester chip market continued to be light, resulting in factory price reductions and promotions, and the market transaction focus weakened.
Polyester chips market price and profit trend chart from 2016 to 2017
From the demand side, the growth rate of textile and clothing retail sales rebounded to 8%-10% in 2017. The growth rate of domestic sales of textile and clothing increased, the decline in exports gradually narrowed, and textile and clothing exports picked up. Because with the slowdown of China’s economic growth and the transformation of the consumption structure, the slowdown in the growth rate of traditional textile and clothing consumption is the general trend. However, with the liberalization of the country’s second-child policy and the stimulation of real estate policies, the consumer demand for home textiles and other real estate has lagged behind. According to the release, China’s domestic demand market for textile and apparel has remained relatively strong this year and is gradually improving month-on-month.
my country’s textile and apparel exports from 2016 to 2017
From January to June 2017, my country’s cumulative export volume of textiles and clothing was US$124.053 billion, a year-on-year increase of 0.36%, of which the cumulative export volume of textiles was US$53.120 billion, a year-on-year increase of 2.10%; the cumulative export volume of clothing was US$70.933 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 0.91 %. At present, textile and clothing exports have three characteristics. Emerging trade methods are active: tourism trade and market procurement trade are driving my country’s exports; the decline in exports in major markets has narrowed, and emerging markets continue to grow; with the help of the comprehensive foreign trade service platform, the development of private enterprises is full of vitality. It is believed that with the improvement of the international economic situation and the gradual implementation of relevant national policies, the development of textile and apparel will have greater room for improvement.
Overall, the market trend of polyester chips in July was basically the same as that of the same period last year. However, last year’s market rise was mainly due to the early release of downstream demand due to the influence of the G20 Summit. This year’s rise in the polyester chip market was mainly due to the passive follow-up of the raw material PTA. Therefore, although the market price of polyester chips has increased significantly this year, the industry profits are not as good as the same period last year, and the market outlook mostly follows the trend of the raw material market. Its lagging nature of rising prices may still worry the profitability. This year, terminal printing and dyeing factories and some high-energy-consuming and high-pollution looms will be gradually eliminated from the market, which may affect the number of new orders from downstream weaving factories. In addition, since June, the polyester market has continued to rise, and downstream weaving factories have relatively limited early stocking. Sufficient, it is expected that the trading atmosphere in the polyester chip market in August will be light, and the market may show a weak consolidation trend.
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