Since July, the domestic caprolactam market has maintained an upward trend, downstream demand has been strong, and the trading atmosphere has remained strong. Judging from recent market factors, although the price of upstream pure benzene has fluctuated downwards, the role of cost support is weakening. At present, the price of pure benzene has dropped from 6,225 yuan/ton in early July to 6,100 yuan/ton. The price has repeatedly loosened, but caprolactam still has a “high fever” and the upward trend has not been affected.
As of July 19, the domestic caprolactam social inventory is estimated to be around 10,000 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 3,900 tons, or 68.4%. The average weekly operating rate of domestic caprolactam manufacturers is around 70%, the shipping atmosphere has picked up, and corporate inventories have dropped significantly, which is significantly lower than the previous period. The demand for downstream slices is supported by strong costs and can still maintain a rising trend. In addition, the demand for nylon in the end fabric market is stable and rising, so the consumption of spinning stocks is relatively fast, which is undoubtedly good for caprolactam. News, driving up its price. This shows that the role of supply and demand has played a vital supporting role in the current market.
With the rise of caprolactam, profits will inevitably rise. As of July 19, the price of pure benzene was 6,100 yuan/ton, and the internal price of caprolactam was 14,500 yuan/ton. From this, it can be calculated that the gross profit of the caprolactam factory is in 2,900 yuan/ton, a month-on-month increase of 1,500 yuan/ton, an increase of 107.14%, and corporate profits gradually increased.
However, caprolactam, which appears to be a “high fever” that does not go away, actually hides a “ticking time bomb”. It is understood that the following caprolactam manufacturers will soon have new production capacity for sale in August: Shanxi Orchid has added 100,000 tons, Shanxi Yangmei has added 200,000 tons, Shanxi Lubao has added 200,000 tons, and Fujian Shenyuan has added 400,000 tons. tons, Luxi Chemical added 200,000 tons, which means that 1.1 million tons of new production capacity will be sold to the market. By then, the total domestic caprolactam production capacity will reach 3.67 million tons, an increase of 42.8% over 2016.
At present, domestic caprolactam production capacity is still being released, but the capacity increase of downstream polymerization enterprises is limited, and it is becoming clear that supply exceeds demand. Sales of domestic enterprises will continue to be under pressure, and competitive pressure is also increasing. Explore the road to export and pursue high-end and differentiated development. The road has not yet been opened. Therefore, it can be expected that the caprolactam market in August will no longer be prosperous, and a “reversal” may come.
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