From December 1st to the present, in less than half a month, the price of direct-spun polyester staple fiber has increased by as much as a thousand yuan. With the continuous exaggeration of various favorable conditions, there are rumors in the industry that this wave of price increases will touch 9,000 yuan/ton. However, downstream users are still replenishing goods despite constant resistance. Looking at the market outlook, as the end of the year approaches, we are faced with high inventories in gray fabric factories, declining operating rates of yarn mills, and slightly tight capital turnover issues in various industries. , can polyester staple fiber rise as expected?
As we all know, the cotton market trend is closely related to the market situation of polyester staple fiber; fluctuations in cotton prices directly affect the demand for polyester staple fiber market, thereby boosting or restricting changes in polyester staple fiber prices. Just at the beginning of December, a survey showed that based on the price difference data of 1.4D polyester staple fiber, 1.5D viscose staple fiber and 3128 grade cotton in November, cotton-related enterprises, research institutions and textile authorities began to question cotton. Textile enterprises have doubts and worries about “increasing chemical fiber and reducing cotton” in purchasing.
In recent times, the cotton market has been hovering at a high level. The price of Xinjiang cotton reserves in Hebei, Henan, Shandong and other places is 15,600-15,800 yuan/ton (gross weight, warehouse delivery); the price of reserve real estate cotton is concentrated at 15,150-15,250 yuan/ton. /Ton. The spot price of large bales in real estate in the Yellow River Basin is 16,000 yuan/ton for grade 3128, and the price for small bales of cotton for grade 3 is around 14,500-15,100 yuan/ton. The market expects that cotton prices may not rise sharply before the Spring Festival, but they will still rise slightly or steadily.
Comparison of polyester staple fiber and raw material prices from December 1 to present
OPEC and non-OPEC countries reached a global production reduction agreement for the first time in ten years. Various benefits have been continuously exaggerated. The products that most affect the price changes of polyester staple fiber – oil, PTA and ethylene glycol have taken turns to stage a skyrocketing pattern. In addition, this year’s bulk Propelled by the overall rebound of commodity futures under supply-side reforms and inflation expectations, polyester staple fiber prices have also successfully reversed the sluggish situation. In less than half a month, the market has increased by 14.43%, setting a new high since November 2014. .
In recent times, the downstream yarn market has also shown a steady upward trend, and the demand side has performed well. At present, the pure polyester yarn market continues to be strong, and the quotations of mainstream products have increased. Among them, the mainstream quotations of 32S pure polyester yarn have risen to around 12,900 yuan/ton, and the mainstream quotations of 45S pure polyester yarn have been raised to around 13,700 yuan/ton; In the later period, there are still expectations of rising prices driven by raw materials.
At the same time, downstream polyester-related yarn varieties have also gradually raised their quotations, but gray fabric factories are more resistant to the supply after the increase, making it difficult for yarn mills to implement price increases. At present, the operating rate of cotton spinning enterprises in Fujian remains at around 90%, and in Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shandong areas at around 70%. Environmental protection rectification in Hebei has caused some sizing mills to shut down (coal-burning enterprises), and gray fabric factories have limited orders, which has caused local yarn mills to The operating rate shrank to around 50%. The demand side has not exerted force yet, but driven by the psychological effect of “buying up but not buying down”, spinning mills also reserve raw materials appropriately according to their own financial conditions.
Although downstream yarn manufacturers are relatively resistant to the price increase of polyester staple fiber, there is still some time before the end of the year to suspend production and holidays, and rigid demand from yarn mills still exists. At present, traders and downstream yarn mills are still bullish following the market. There is mostly moderate replenishment. It is reported that the inventories of polyester staple fiber manufacturers are generally at a low level nowadays, and the product inventories of mainstream manufacturers have dropped to 3-7 days, and some are slightly higher.
It is understood that although it is not ruled out that a few spinning mills have already started stocking up in the first quarter of next year, the raw material inventory of most spinning mills is within 1-2 months, which means that most spinning mills can only maintain the production of the year before. If the post-holiday market is still worth looking forward to, cotton mills are still expected to stock up further before the Spring Festival. Looking at the market outlook, although the oil market has temporarily fluctuated and adjusted due to the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hike, the IEA predicts that if the production reduction agreement is successfully implemented, oil supply will be in short supply in the first half of next year. Against this background, oil prices are likely to continue to rise. The most important link in promoting the price increase of polyester products – the later operating trend of ethylene glycol is also a key factor.
The current situation of ethylene glycol is still good, and the annual maintenance of the shell device in the first quarter of next year will lead to an overall tight supply of imported goods. The expectation that port inventory will continue to be low will still support market prices. However, polyester factory finishing profits are still acceptable, and most factories have been overhauled during the G20 period. Due to tight inventory at the end of the year, the maintenance capacity during the Spring Festival may be significantly lower than in previous years. Therefore, for polyester raw materials PTA and ethylene glycol, there is no risk of a market crash for the time being.
From the perspective of polyester staple fiber itself, most factories currently have no inventory and lack of supply.There are also many factories that have been operating for more than ten days, which also greatly reduces the risk of market downside. In summary, the editor believes that there will be a wave of stocking in the downstream before the Spring Festival, and the price of polyester staple fiber is expected to rise further by then. However, due to the lack of follow-up of high-priced supply recently, the current market is already very high, so the actual price during the Spring Festival It is difficult to make a major breakthrough in the past. It is expected that the market rumored price of 9,000 yuan/ton will appear after the Spring Festival, and it is more likely to be in February-March. However, there are still some risk factors, such as limited demand from terminal gray fabric factories, slow supply transmission after yarn prices rise, and financial pressure forcing yarn mills to stop early; there is a need for correction after the continued surge in bulk commodities, which drags down the price of polyester raw materials.
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