Do you still remember when the last PTA daily limit occurred? It was December 12, 2016. After more than half a year, today, a bowl of lukewarm water finally turned into porridge, and PTA reached its daily limit again! As of the close on the 11th, the main PTA contract rose to 5,200 points, an increase of 5.01%, and the daily limit was also closed during the period.
For this week’s polyester market, price increases should be the key word for downstream polyester. In recent months, the polyester market has been “turbulent”. Not only polyester filament has set off waves of “rising” heat waves, but the market prices of other chemical fiber products such as nylon, polyester staple fiber and other products are also in a steady upward trend. . However, as the leading upstream raw material – PTA, some time ago it was both full of hope and constant disappointment.
Before June, PTA was almost a helpless person. The bullish bulls who never gave up on PTA were like leeks, being cut off one crop after another. But recently, the polyester market has surged. However, every once in a while, I play a small fluctuation game. The popularity is getting weaker and weaker, neither rising nor falling. The adjustment range of dozens of dollars back and forth makes the industry tired and uninterested. Just when everyone was disappointed and disappointed, PTA started quietly in July. Since July, PTA futures have increased by 346 points.
This round of PTA rise is driven by funds. Bullish funds seized the opportunity to significantly increase their positions and boost the main futures price of PTA. On July 5, 1709 main futures inflows were 270 million yuan. As of the close on the morning of the 11th, the main futures prices of PTA had once again inflowed into nearly 300 million yuan. It increased by 132 points, and the daily increase in positions exceeded 90,000 lots.
In addition, the support of downstream polyester supply and demand is also an important factor. From the perspective of PTA’s own supply, due to the delayed restart of the Hengli Petrochemical Unit, the fault shutdown of the Pengwei Petrochemical Unit, and the delayed restart of Yangzi Petrochemical, the PTA market has experienced three recent changes. During the monthly destocking cycle, PTA social inventory fell to 1.175 million tons by the end of June. The tight supply gave bulls in the PTA market confidence to rebound.
However, from the demand side, the increase in end-use textile demand, the strong off-season and stronger-than-expected demand have become the keynote for the rise of the polyester market. Along with the strengthening of the polyester market, factory production and sales have also increased significantly, and some companies have become oversold. High demand has provided a boost to the rise of PTA.
The long-lost PTA market has also contributed to today’s polyester rising boom. Starting from early trading, the price of downstream polyester filament products has begun to rise again. Most polyester manufacturers increased their prices by 100 yuan in early trading, and when the production and sales of some large manufacturers exceeded 200% in the morning, they continued to make up for the increase by 100-150 yuan in the afternoon, and some manufacturers even closed their prices again.
Although the market has taken off, how long can PTA last?
From an analysis point of view, the recent trend of the polyester market is no longer dominated by the direction of polyester raw materials such as PTA. Polyester manufacturers’ low inventory, high demand and mentality have become the key to dominating the market.
From the perspective of the PTA market alone, the current market fundamentals are still under heavy pressure, and the impact of overproduction in the crude oil market has always been surrounding. The overall long-term momentum of the market is not strong, and the short-term market still has downward pressure to adjust. From a mental point of view, the PTA market seems to have been favored by funds recently, and the atmosphere of speculation is high. However, funds are mainly driven by profit, and currently processing fees have reached a high point during the year, and the upward space is relatively limited.
From the perspective of the polyester filament market, the surge in PTA has given stronger impetus to the polyester filament that was originally on the rising channel. In the short term, the market will usher in a new wave of polyester rising boom.
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