Just when everyone thought that the black series was ushering in a bull market and cotton was going to be reduced to a supporting role, clinker caught people’s attention with a perfect plummeting performance today. Suddenly, the circle of friends exploded. Some They expressed surprise, and some lamented that they were heading in the wrong direction. What happened to cotton these days? I guess no one can tell.
Zheng Mian has always been so willful, and he will change if he disagrees. On the evening of the 28th, Zheng Mian started to rise. Some friends said regretfully: “I had known that I would have closed my short order in the Japanese market yesterday. Who would have done it?” Zhiwan rose more than 100 points.” Just when everyone thought that Zheng Mian had rebounded slightly, during the closing period, Zheng Mian’s main holdings increased sharply by 51,720 lots. The recent continuous reduction of positions was under control. Before this, Zheng Mian’s total holdings were only 20 There were more than 10,000 lots, a sharp increase of about 20%. Under the influence of so many positions, the Zheng cotton 1709 contract fell 365 points to close at 14845 yuan/ton, once again breaking the previous low price.
On the 28th, Zheng Mian had just closed the market, and a friend in Cangzhou immediately called and asked the editor Zheng Mian for his opinion. He introduced:
1. Futures traders have lost their courage and ambition. Because this time Zheng Mian’s plunge was unexpected. From May to June, Zheng cotton basically oscillated in a wide range of 15,000-16,000 yuan/ton. According to past experience, Zheng cotton fell to around 15,000 yuan/ton, and would soon rise to fill the gap, rising to a ceiling of 16,000 yuan/ton. This This time it was a little different. After Zheng Cotton plummeted on June 12th and 13th, many people followed the old thinking and went long. But I never expected that Zheng Mian would plummet again, trapping the long traders. There are also many cotton futures traders who lost all their money and shed tears;
2. The spot dealers were frightened. As one trader said, although the current futures are divergent, the negative impact of Zheng cotton’s decline on the spot cannot be underestimated. Before the words were spoken, on the 28th, a cotton merchant in Shandong immediately lowered the cotton price by another 100 yuan/ton. The price of state-owned cotton grade 13 (produced in 2013), 27.6 mm long, horse value B2, reached 14,400 yuan/ton. In addition, some other dealers and traders also have plans to lower their prices to attract customers.
A sharp drop in the market will inevitably have negative factors, but judging from the current understanding of the situation, there will be no other negative news in the short term. At present, the reserve cotton is being rotated out in an orderly manner. Both the total amount of cotton rotated out and the amount of Xinjiang cotton rotated out have continued to maintain a stable state, and there are no accidents. Moreover, the cotton reserve rotation policy in 2016 has not changed, so the factors that caused the cotton reserve to plummet are not established.
Judging from the foreign situation, although the U.S. cotton ICE has fallen for ten consecutive times and created a new price low, judging from the performance of Zheng cotton, it has not followed the decline and fallen. The most important thing is that ICE has temporarily stopped falling and stabilized recently, and in the long term The bearish trend has already been gradually digested and is unlikely to explode at this time. Therefore, the foreign cotton market cannot cause Zheng cotton to plummet.
What is the reason?
The editor believes that the first reason is due to capital speculation. Capital, the invisible hand of the market, may enter the market at any time to intervene in prices, and based on previous experience, once intervention occurs, prices will inevitably fluctuate significantly.
In addition, when Zheng Mian has been hovering at a low level for a long time, everyone’s bearish wishful thinking will affect their judgment, and it is not impossible to follow the trend of falling prices.
Of course, on the other hand, domestic cotton prices have been generally weak in recent days, and some prices have continued to fall, which has also had a certain impact on Zheng cotton. As of the 26th, the “Double 28” and “Double 29” prices of hand-picked cotton in Aksu, Kashgar and other places in Xinjiang were 15,700-15,900 yuan/ton (gross weight, with tickets), down 150 yuan from last week (June 19-23) -200 yuan/ton. According to the person in charge of a company in Xinjiang, cotton prices in Xinjiang have generally fallen by more than 200 yuan/ton, with poorer quality cotton falling even more. As of the 26th, the prices of grade 3128 and grade 4128 cotton produced in Shandong, Hebei and other places were 15,200 yuan/ton and 14,700 yuan/ton respectively. Manufacturers made a profit of about 100 yuan/ton in actual transactions. The spot price of mainland lint cotton was stable and slightly down.
There may be some factors that have not been seen or analyzed, but no matter what, Zheng Mian’s sharp rise and fall are normal reactions of the futures market. The key depends on whether you can stick to your own judgment and hold the order. In short, futures are risky and investment needs to be cautious. If there is no fluctuation, no one will be “playing”.
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