The trend in 2017 has passed halfway. From the market chart in the first half of the year, we can clearly see that in 2017, especially since the second quarter, the overall performance of the polyester market has been strong, and its resilience is obvious to all, especially in the recent downturn in polyester raw materials and the off-season market. , repeating the irrational trend seen in the middle of last year.
The market in recent days has also made a good start for the market in the second half of the year. Since the end of June, the prices of various products in the polyester filament market have increased between 300 and 500 yuan. In early trading today, polyester factories reported general price increases. 100-200 yuan, and 80-90% of the specifications are lined up. It can be said that the market is getting higher and higher.
Recently, as the polyester market has entered a surge, the market transaction volume has also increased, and the overall production and sales have continued to increase, exceeding 100%. The mainstream production and sales in the market have rebounded to around 120%, and individual manufacturers have sold as high as 200-300%. In the early days, the production and sales of some in-demand specifications such as FDY fine denier yarn were booming, with nearly zero inventory, and some were out of stock or out of stock. Now, other varieties of polyester yarn are also beginning to experience a situation where it is difficult to find a single stock and there is a rush for goods.
After experiencing a destocking cycle for many consecutive months, in addition to the positive demand side, the decline in market inventory is also one of the key factors in the market. Up to now, the cash flow of conventional specifications POY, FDY and DTY has reached the level of 552, 1150 and 800 yuan respectively. At the same time, product inventory is in good condition. The average inventory of POY and FDY in the industry has dropped to the level of 1 week and 2 weeks respectively, and has reached the low inventory area during the same period.
So, will textiles, which has made a good start, continue to have smooth sailing in the second half of the year? Of course, prices cannot be stable for a long time, and as the saying goes, “If the market lasts for a long time, it will fall” or “If the market lasts for a long time, it will rise.” How long can such a strong polyester market last?
Although the traditional off-season in July has arrived, and it is still in the early stages of the month, polyester filament has already shown a high-profile market. Therefore, some industry players predict that this increase does not rule out the possibility of continuing to rise. However, it is understood that it may be difficult for polyester filament to reach a new high last year.
From the demand side, the current cash flow performance of polyester factories is good, especially polyester filament. Market inventories are also at low levels. This is only a short-term phenomenon, and the printing and dyeing industry in Wujiang has been shut down recently; and the start-up of water jets has declined due to increased environmental supervision, which has laid hidden dangers for demand. In addition, the current inventory of raw materials in downstream weaving factories is mostly maintained at a level of more than 30 days, and the inventory of raw materials in downstream factories is already above the normal level.
On the other hand, downstream weaving may be unable to support the polyester market, and the side effects will ferment later:
1. It is understood that after the introduction of the water-jet loom elimination policy, the foreseeable withdrawal of water-jet looms from the market in the short term has directly affected the market’s precautionary measures and led to a rise in the market. In fact, the large-scale elimination work did not start in time. According to the task list for the elimination of water-jet looms in Shengze Town, it can be seen that rectification in the second half of the year is imperative and the situation is severe. Eliminating such a large number of water-jet looms will instantly suppress the demand for polyester filament, and in the third quarter Look, there is no lack of environmental protection control policies coming out of the market. This will lead to a decrease in the operating rate of weaving factories. When the raw material inventory is sufficient, it will inevitably lead to poor production and sales, rising inventory, and high-profit polyester. The factory is bound to be sold at a profit; and judging from the recent market judgment, the current sales of polyester filament yarns have been subject to speculation. The panic of buying up rather than buying down is not a sign of healthy development of the industry.
2. When downstream weaving is difficult to provide support, can upstream polyester raw materials find new ways? The trend of polyester raw materials this year has made polyester factories no longer disdain to be associated with PTA and ethylene glycol, but can this unsupported Adou give surprises in the second half of the year? In the author’s opinion, although polyester raw materials have stopped falling and stabilized recently, they are still weak in the later period. According to the current device maintenance plan, the current parking device has basically been restarted in mid-to-early July. In July, the maintenance device only heard that there was a maintenance plan for the Yizheng Chemical Fiber 650,000 tons/year device, and no maintenance plans were announced for other devices. Up to now, domestic companies that have not yet overhauled their PTA devices during the year include two sets of 1.2 million tons/year units in Sanfangxiang, Honggang Petrochemical’s 1.5 million tons/year unit, Yisheng Chemical’s 2.25 million tons/year unit, and Hengli 2# 220 10,000 tons/year installation. According to previous years’ experience, the next maintenance peak will be after September. If accidental parking is excluded, August will be a process of accumulating inventory. It can be seen that upstream supply is not enough to support the market of polyester raw materials.
Comprehensive consideration, the short-term demand-side benefits and the improvement of its own cash flow can support the polyester market. However, the increased supply pressure of PTA in the later period, the increase in terminal environmental protection rectification, and the arrival of the off-season can all be factors that can break the deadlock and turn the market around. The trigger for the decline, so�In the long term, there are still certain downside risks in the polyester market.
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