1. Polyester staple fiber market
This week, the short-term market rose first and then stabilized. At the end of the National Day holiday, as the international crude oil price increased and broke the 50 mark, the polyester short-sleeved market in Jiangsu and Zhejiang followed the polyester market and rose. Later, the rest of the market gradually followed up slightly. Later, oil prices and PTA futures fell sharply, and the polyester short-sleeved market reached high prices. It is also close to the high level in the previous period of this year. Coupled with the resistance of downstream yarn mills to purchasing high-priced goods, the market price of polyester shorts has begun to stabilize. At the end of the week, the mainstream quotation price of 1.4D direct-spun polyester staple in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was 7,000-7,200 yuan/ton ex-factory, which was 100-200 yuan/ton higher than last week.
Product quotations in the polyester yarn market are stable, and demand is generally weak. The mainstream quotation for 32S pure polyester yarn is 11,400-11,600 yuan/ton.
2. Industry trends
1. The production capacity of polyester staple fiber in 2016 was 6.79 million tons. Among them, the devices calculated as being within the production capacity but currently not in operation include Xiangsheng 200,000 tons, Far East 200,000 tons, and Shanghai Hengyi 120,000 tons. The remaining devices that are not in operation are not included in the production capacity.
2. Shandong Huahong’s direct-spinning polyester staple fiber unit, which was restarted in early March, was shut down in early April. The restart is pending, involving a production capacity of 120,000 tons.
3. A polyester staple fiber plant in Sanfang Lane, Jiangyin, underwent minor inspections during the festival. After the festival, its 800,000-ton production capacity returned to operation at around 90%.
4. Tianjin Petrochemical’s polyester staple fiber plant will be shut down for maintenance in late August and restarted around October 2, involving a production capacity of 100,000 tons.
This week, the price of polyester staple fiber first increased and then stabilized. In the middle and late stages of the holiday and the early post-holiday period, traders and downstream yarn mills have appropriate raw material replenishment, and subsequent purchases have basically returned to rigid demand. In addition, the market has responded favorably to recent export sales. This week, the inventory of products of mainstream polyester staple fiber manufacturers is 5-10 days, and some are slightly higher or lower.
Sinopec’s direct-spinning polyester staple fiber guidance price this week: 1.4D semi-gloss polyester staple fiber is quoted at 7,200 yuan/ton; 1.2D glossy polyester staple fiber is quoted at 7,800 yuan/ton.
3. Outlook for next week
In terms of raw materials, U.S. crude oil closed above US$50/barrel this week; in terms of domestic PTA, the real-time operating rate dropped to 61.8% at the end of the week (the current production capacity base has increased to 48.84 million tons). The operating load of polyester has rebounded to around 82.1% in real time, and PTA-PET is in a state of small destocking. In October, for the PTA variety, which is currently very mature in the industry, it was still in a state of range fluctuation within this year’s average processing fee.
In terms of demand, the price of polyester yarn products is stable this week, and the overall demand is still weak. In addition, transportation costs are rising in disguise. Traders and downstream yarn mills have moderately replenished stocks before the price of polyester staple fiber rises and then cautiously pursue higher prices. In the later period, it may still be Mainly small orders for rigid needs.
On the supply side, the construction of Sanfangxiang returned to its highest level this week, and the Tianjin petrochemical plant also restarted during the festival, and the supply of polyester staple fiber in the market increased.
On the whole, the cash flow profit of polyester staple fiber at the end of the week was around 200. Crude oil sees a bullish and bearish trend, raw material PTA fluctuates within a narrow range, traders and downstream spinning mills are cautious in pursuing higher prices, polyester staple fiber cash flow is still profitable and other market conditions will increase the upward resistance of polyester staple fiber in the later period, or it may adjust slightly to follow the stable raw material. host. Pay attention to oil prices, PTA futures, sales of polyester manufacturers and downstream yarn manufacturers, etc.
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