Introduction: The trend of domestic caprolactam in 2016. Judging from the normal market conditions in previous years, June to August has been the off-season for caprolactam industry sales in previous years. Now it is just the opposite. The “off-season” is not weak, bucking the trend and going up, and the performance is relatively strong; can it be strong? Going forward, since September, facts have proved that the traditional “Golden Nine and Silver Ten” periods are not prosperous, and there is no hope of “strong” prices.
Caprolactam: “Peak season” is not prosperous, “strong” is hopeless
From June to August, due to hot weather, domestic caprolactam devices frequently failed, resulting in insufficient industry supply, which formed a strong support for the seller’s market. Market transaction prices continued to rise, with liquid materials rising to 11,600 yuan/ton.
The “peak season” is not prosperous: Entering September, the overall domestic caprolactam production started to increase rapidly after the G20 Summit, with the monthly average operating rate reaching around 80%, while the downstream slicing factory operating rate was around 60%; due to the domestic caprolactam There are few high-quality products, and the high-speed spinning market has acceptable trading volume. The conventional spinning market has been affected by demand, resulting in an oversupply of domestic caprolactam. Manufacturers have relied on low inventories to “strengthen” for a period of time; just like this, day by day, the downstream polymerization operation has been delayed. As expected, purchasing intentions are not high, and prices continue to be lowered. Manufacturers are not shipping smoothly. In order to prevent inventory pressure, some manufacturers have “released” shipments. In this way, a new round of promotional price war in the caprolactam market has begun again, and market transactions have been completed. The price fell slowly, and the transaction price of liquid materials dropped to 11,000 yuan/ton by the time of writing.
According to analysis, the price of pure benzene continues to remain high and firm, and the market drop has basically nothing to do with the cost price; Sinopec’s high listing price in October will undoubtedly provide some support to the market, but for today’s market where supply and demand are out of balance, the only option is It is a drop in the bucket, the short-term oversupply situation cannot be improved, the “peak season” of gold, September and silver ten is not prosperous, and there is no hope of “strength”.
