[168TEX News] There have been ups and downs on the upstream raw material side recently. As the market supply gradually recovers, the international crude oil market price, which was strong in the early stage, has fallen again, and the polyester raw material market has also seen a weak correction. Under the situation of weakening cost support and weakening demand, what chance does the polyester filament, which briefly recovered in the early stage, still have to win now?
First of all, polyester filament is facing cost suppression. In the early stage, international crude oil prices rose for two consecutive weeks due to the impact of crude oil supply interruptions. Unexpectedly, the crude oil supply interruptions that were almost caused are being quickly resolved. If various oil output interruptions are restored, then the international The crude oil market’s recent reduction of 3 million barrels/day of crude oil supply will quickly rebound; oil prices may find it difficult to find support in the market outlook. Under this influence, the market prices of polyester raw materials PTA and MEG may fall under pressure and continue to suffer from slight fluctuations.
The second is the crucial demand procurement issue of polyester filament. In recent times, the overall trading atmosphere of the polyester filament market has been hot and cold. In the early stage, stimulated by the sharp increase in oil prices and the increase in polyester filament prices, downstream weaving manufacturers actively stocked up, and the production and sales of the polyester filament market once again became hot. At one time, production and sales were as high as 200% and 300%; however, after a short period of upsurge, downstream market purchases gradually calmed down again, and the mentality of purchasing goods became cautious again. Most of them were based on on-demand purchases. The mainstream production and sales of the polyester market mostly revolved around 5- 80% level is difficult to achieve.
Another thing to pay attention to is the inventory situation of polyester filament itself. Although the inventory levels of mainstream polyester manufacturers have increased slightly due to the recent decline in production and sales in the polyester filament market, overall they are not at a high level. According to statistics, the current overall polyester market inventory is around 13-16 days; in terms of specific products, POY inventory is around 13-15 days, FDY inventory is around 14-18 days, and DTY inventory is around 17-26 days about.
The last and most intuitive thing is naturally the profit level of each polyester filament product. Calculation shows that FDY, POY and DTY have all been profitable recently. As can be seen from the figure below, FDY products have always been at a good profit level, and currently their profits hover around 450 yuan/ton; in addition, driven by prices, the profits of DTY products have a steady upward trend. At present, their profits The profit level fluctuates around the level of 400 yuan/ton; relatively speaking, the profit level of POY is low, but it has reversed from the previous loss predicament, and the profit margin is small, below 100 yuan.
Based on the above, international oil prices have fluctuated greatly in recent times, and the upstream polyester raw material market is hardly improving, and the cost support for the polyester filament market has indeed weakened; in addition, the downstream market has been flat, and the early market has been phased. Demand is released, replenishment is not sustained enough, and market trading volume is difficult to significantly increase. Not surprisingly, if the upstream market outlook for polyester filament yarns does not improve significantly, most of the polyester filament market will follow the narrow-width consolidation of upstream raw materials. <br /
