El Niño’s impact on major cotton-producing areas around the world
According to the recent June Outlook report released by the U.S. Climate Prediction Center on June 8, after the end of La Niña that lasted for three years, we have now ushered in the El Niño phenomenon, which will gradually strengthen until this winter in the Northern Hemisphere. A strong El Niño is possible. The author here discusses the impact of El Niño on the cotton regions of China, the United States and India.
China’s cotton planting is mainly concentrated in Xinjiang. At the beginning of this year’s planting season, it encountered disastrous weather such as low temperature, strong winds, and hail. Cotton farmers generally expressed the need to focus on the subsequent key growing period weather from July to September, especially July. If it continues When high temperature weather exceeds 35°C, strong transpiration will accelerate plant water loss, and peach drop may occur, resulting in yield loss. Some growers recall the strong El Niño phenomenon in 2015. In July of that year, a severe sustained high temperature occurred, which severely affected cotton fields, and they are worried that it will happen again this year. Looking back at Reuters weather data over the past 30 years, Xinjiang’s average maximum temperature in July in 2015 exceeded the 30-year historical average by 1.8°C, but at the same time we noticed that the year had been in an El Niño state since the beginning of the year. In 1997, when the neutral state changed to El Niño in June, the highest temperature in Xinjiang in July exceeded the historical average by 0.7°C. Since July 2002, when the neutral state changed to El Niño, the highest temperature in Xinjiang in July was still 0.3°C lower than the historical average. Since the transition from La Niña to El Niño in August 2019, the highest temperature in Xinjiang in July was also 0.6°C lower than the historical average. It can be found that the impact of El Niño on the temperature in Xinjiang in July is not absolute, and it has just entered a weak El Niño state. It is expected that the possibility of sustained high temperature disasters in Xinjiang in July is unlikely, but weather forecasts still need to be paid attention to.
Cotton planting in the United States is concentrated in Texas and its eastward region, with Texas accounting for approximately 42% of the U.S. production. Looking back at historical meteorological data, El Niño usually brings precipitation to Texas that exceeds the historical average. For example, in 2004, when the neutral state changed to El Niño in August, the cumulative precipitation in Texas from April to August was 144 mm higher than the historical average. This number reached 184 mm in 2015, a strong El Niño year. Abundant rain usually brings lower rates of farm abandonment. For example, in 2015 and 2016, the abandonment rate in the United States was as low as 6.1% and 5.5%, and in 2004 it was as low as 4.4%.
Cotton planting in India is concentrated in the central and southern parts, and is also distributed in the north. The planting time varies from place to place. The planting time is usually from April to November in the north, from May to December in the center, and from June to January in the south. The central state of Gujarat and its southern state of Maharashtra together account for 48% of India’s production. The El Niño phenomenon usually causes the average cumulative precipitation in the two states from May to December to be lower than the historical average, and the reduction in rainfall usually leads to a reduction in yields. For example, in 2018, when El Niño began in October, the average cumulative precipitation in the two states from May to December was 242 mm lower than the historical average. In the same year, India’s yield dropped by 10.4%. In 2009, when El Niño began in August, the average cumulative precipitation in the two states from May to December was 57 mm lower than the historical average. In the same year, India’s yield fell by 3.9%.
Generally speaking, El Niño will have a high probability of increasing precipitation in the US cotton areas, which will be beneficial to US cotton production. At the same time, there is a high probability that the Indian cotton areas will be dry, and the risk of cotton field yield decline will increase. El Niño may have little impact on my country’s Xinjiang production areas, so we still need to continue to pay attention to the weather forecasts in each production area.
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