Foreign trade moves out of the “L-shape” and the decline gradually narrows
Abstract: Like the macro economy, foreign trade is also showing a bottoming trend. Data released by the General Administration of Customs on the 8th showed that in October, my country’s total import and export value was 2.05 trillion yuan, down 0.6% from the same period last year. Among them, exports were 1.19 trillion yuan, down 3.2%; imports were 860.6 billion yuan, up 3.2%; the trade surplus was 325.25 billion yuan, narrowed by 16.8%. In the first 10 months of this year, my country’s total import and export value was 19.56 trillion yuan, compared with last year
Key words:
Like macroeconomics, foreign trade It is also showing a bottoming trend.
Data released by the General Administration of Customs on the 8th showed that in October, my country’s total import and export value was 2.05 trillion yuan, down 0.6% from the same period last year. Among them, exports were 1.19 trillion yuan, down 3.2%; imports were 860.6 billion yuan, up 3.2%; the trade surplus was 325.25 billion yuan, narrowed by 16.8%.
In the first 10 months of this year, my country’s total import and export value was 19.56 trillion yuan, down 1.9% from the same period last year. This data was the same as the year-on-year decline from January to September.
The decline gradually narrowed
Statistics show that since the beginning of this year, foreign trade has been on the track of recovery, showing a gradual and gradual narrowing trend. The cumulative year-on-year decline in total import and export volume has gradually declined from -12.6% in the first two months. It narrowed to -5.9%, -4.4%, -3.2%, -3.3%, -3% and -1.8%, and remained stable at -1.9% in the first 9 and 10 months.
Judging from the single-month export data, there is also a bottoming trend. From January to October this year, year-on-year export growth rates were -6.6%, -20.6%, 18.7%, 4.1%, 1.2%, 1.3%, 2.9%, 5.9%, -5.6% and -3.2% respectively.
“It should be seen that stabilizing foreign trade has achieved results. In China’s foreign trade, we have seen an L-shaped trend, with no further decline, and there is a possibility of recovery in the next two months.” Business Bai Ming, deputy director of the International Market Research Institute of the Ministry of Education, told reporters that although the foreign trade export leading index fell slightly in October, the leading indexes in the previous months pointed to a rebound. Moreover, the just-released Canton Fair data also delivered a good result of “export turnover rebounded by 3.2%.”
Since July, my country’s foreign trade export leading index has rebounded month-on-month for three consecutive months. The rebound to 35.8 in September, the month after the third quarter, also indicates that export pressure is expected to ease in the fourth quarter. In January, my country’s foreign trade export leading index was only 31.7.
As for the reasons for the rebound in imports, Bai Ming believes that one is the depreciation of the RMB. In terms of US dollars, imports are still falling; secondly, commodity prices have rebounded significantly and prices have rebounded; thirdly, a series of domestic policies to stabilize growth have spillover effects on the international market.
Processing trade is still difficult
“However, there is still a long way to go to achieve the goal of stabilizing and improving foreign trade, and we cannot take it lightly.” Bai Ming said.
One obvious phenomenon is that the import and export of the special customs supervision zone, which was once an important driving force, has declined.
According to customs statistics, in the first 10 months, the import and export volume under special customs supervision, which accounted for approximately 10% of my country’s total foreign trade value, fell by 2.9% year-on-year. Among them, exports fell by 5.8% and imports fell by 1.4%.
“Since some bonded processing trade is concentrated in special customs supervision areas, the decline in processing trade is part of the reason.” In Bai Ming’s view, my country’s processing trade The output is mainly labor-intensive products. Against the backdrop of changes in the international industrial landscape, much processing trade is shifting to Southeast Asia, where costs are lower. In the special customs supervision zone, there are more investment attractions for processing trade, so this also reflects that processing trade is still difficult.
Data show that in the first 10 months, my country’s processing trade import and export was 5.84 trillion yuan, down 6.7%, accounting for 29.9% of the total foreign trade value, down 1.5% from the same period last year. Among them, exports fell by 6.3%, imports fell by 7.3%, and the surplus under processing trade narrowed by 5%.
The Minsheng Macro Research Report commented that from the perspective of trade methods, the import growth rates of incoming processing and outgoing processing dropped significantly, to -6.8% and -54.6% respectively. Import processing trade Continued weakness.
“However, it should be noted that in processing trade, the decline in imports is greater and is not synchronized with the decline in exports. This is because more raw materials are purchased domestically. .” Bai Ming explained.
Another phenomenon is that while the exports of private enterprises continue to grow, the exports of state-owned enterprises have declined significantly.
In the first 10 months, the import and export of private enterprises bucked the trend and increased by 3.8%, accounting for 38.5% of the total foreign trade value, an increase of 2.1 percentage points from the same period last year; the import and export of state-owned enterprises decreased by 9.1% %, accounting for the total value of foreign trade��, exports fell by 6.3%, imports fell by 7.3%, and the surplus under processing trade narrowed by 5%.
The Minsheng Macro Research Report commented that from the perspective of trade methods, the import growth rates of incoming processing and outgoing processing dropped significantly, to -6.8% and -54.6% respectively. Import processing trade Continued weakness.
“However, it should be noted that in processing trade, the decline in imports is greater and is not synchronized with the decline in exports. This is because more raw materials are purchased domestically. .” Bai Ming explained.
Another phenomenon is that while the exports of private enterprises continue to grow, the exports of state-owned enterprises have declined significantly.
In the first 10 months, the import and export of private enterprises bucked the trend and increased by 3.8%, accounting for 38.5% of the total foreign trade value, an increase of 2.1 percentage points from the same period last year; the import and export of state-owned enterprises decreased by 9.1% %, accounting for 15.4% of the total foreign trade value.
Bai Ming said that this aspect shows that private enterprises are dynamic, flexible and can easily adapt to changes in the international market. For example, in the export of clothes, shoes and hats, it is difficult for state-owned enterprises to catch up with private enterprises. However, state-owned enterprises have a dominant advantage in the export of high-end equipment such as high-speed rail and nuclear power. Therefore, in the future, state-owned enterprises should focus on leveraging their own strengths and unique advantages and take the lead in exporting high-end equipment manufacturing, while in labor-intensive products, private enterprises should exert greater advantages.
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