Can the economic performance of the textile industry in 2016 be bright and clear?
Abstract: Since 2016, the operation of the fabric industry has been basically normal, with good operation quality and industry prosperity gradually improving. However, terminal demand is sluggish, raw material prices fluctuate, manufacturing costs are still high, production and sales growth has slowed down, and industry operation characteristics can be used To sum up, “4 slowdowns, 3 improvements”. The growth rate of the main scale indicators of the fabric industry (data source: Industrial Economic Research Institute of China Fabric Industry Federation) The growth rate of the industrial added value of the fabric industry continues to slow down. 20
Since 2016, the fabric industry has been operating basically normally and the operation quality is good. , the industry’s prosperity is gradually improving, but terminal demand is sluggish, raw material prices fluctuate, manufacturing costs are still high, and the growth rate of production and sales has slowed down. The operating characteristics of the industry can be summarized as “four slowdowns and three improvements.”
Growth rate of main scale indicators of the fabric industry
(Data source: Industrial Economic Research Institute of China Fabric Industry Federation)
The growth rate of industrial added value in the fabric industry continues to slow down. In the first three quarters of 2016, the industrial added value of the fabric industry above designated size (excluding the textile machinery part) increased by 5.6% year-on-year, 1 percentage point lower than the growth rate of the same period last year, and 0.4 percentage points lower than the growth rate of the added value of the national industrial added value above designated size. The growth rate of industrial added value in the industry has shown a gradual slowdown, mainly due to the lack of market demand. When raw material prices rise, prices are not transmitted smoothly to end products, making it difficult to form growth support. Among them, the growth rates of cotton textile, industrial and chemical fiber manufacturing industries declined rapidly, down 2.2, 3.1 and 3.3 percentage points respectively from the same period last year.
The main business revenue and profit growth of the fabric industry has slowed down. In the first three quarters of 2016, fabric enterprises above designated size achieved main business income of 5.21594 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.1%. The growth rate slowed down by 1.1 and 0.5 percentage points respectively compared with the same period last year and the second quarter of this year; the total profit was 261.46 billion yuan. The year-on-year growth rate was 3.7%, and the growth rate was 5.7 and 2.6 percentage points slower than the same period last year and the second quarter of this year respectively. It was also 4.7 percentage points lower than the profit growth rate of industrial enterprises above designated size nationwide. Rising costs and weak demand are the main reasons. Among them, affected by fluctuations in raw material prices, the profit growth rates of the cotton textile and chemical fiber industries fell by 4.5 and 31 percentage points respectively compared with the same period last year. The profit growth rates of the linen spinning and chemical fiber fabric dyeing and finishing industries dropped by 16.3 and 22.6 percentage points respectively compared with the same period last year. percentage point.
The growth of fixed asset investment in the fabric industry has decelerated. In the first three quarters of 2016, the industry-wide completed investment in projects worth more than 5 million yuan was 922.26 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.9%, and the growth rate slowed down 8.8 percentage points from the same period last year. The investment growth rate in all links of the industrial chain has generally slowed down. Affected by sluggish terminal demand and investment cyclicality, the investment growth rate in the home textiles, workwear, and industrial industries has slowed down by 33.2, 20.6, and 22.8 percentage points respectively compared with the same period last year. Among various regions, the investment growth rates in the eastern and central regions were 8.4 and 13.2 percentage points lower than the same period last year respectively; the progress of the fabric industry in the western region has accelerated, with investment in the first three quarters increasing by 27% year-on-year, of which Xinjiang accounted for the largest increase in investment in the country. 28.4% of the increase in investment in the fabric industry.
Domestic sales of fabric workwear products are growing at a slow and steady pace. In the first three quarters of 2016, the national retail sales of workwear, shoes, hats, needles and fabrics above designated size increased by 7.2% year-on-year, 3 percentage points slower than the same period last year, and 3.2 percentage points lower than the growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods; the growth rate of online retail sales also In the first three quarters, the national online retail sales of clothing products increased by 16.3% year-on-year, a sharp decrease of 10 percentage points from the same period last year; per capita clothing expenditure accounted for 7.1% of expenditures, 0.4 percentage points lower than the same period last year. First, due to the slowdown in residents’ income growth and lack of consumer confidence; second, due to the increasingly obvious characteristics of domestic improvement consumption and consumption upgrading, residents have a strong willingness to purchase durable goods, such as housekeeping services, children’s education, Chinese and Western medicines, and movies. Expenditures on entertainment and other aspects are relatively large, while willingness to consume basic daily necessities is slightly lower. During the same period, retail sales of communication equipment, construction decoration and automobiles increased by 12.7%, 15.4% and 9.1% respectively year-on-year.
Fabric industry export Quantity growth rate and industry prosperity index
(Data source: China Fabric Industry Federation Institute of Industrial Economics)
Although the growth rate of most scale indicators in the industry is slowing down, the fabric industry has achieved quality growth , maintaining relatively stable export competitiveness.
The growth rate of export volume in the fabric industry has increased. In the first three quarters of 2016, the fabric industry’s cumulative exports of fabric workwear reached US$198.65 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 6%. The growth rate was 1.4 percentage points lower than the same period last year and higher than the same period last year.The country’s export growth rate was 1.5 percentage points. The scale of exports continued to show negative growth, mainly due to the appreciation of the US dollar. The export price of fabric workwear dropped by 6.4% year-on-year. After adjusting for price factors, the industry’s export volume increased by 0.4% year-on-year, which was 3.6 percentage points higher than the growth rate in the same period last year. If priced in RMB, the export value of fabric workwear in the first three quarters increased by 0.1% year-on-year. Although the traditional market share of my country’s fabric workwear in the United States, Japan and Europe has declined, it has improved in other markets, the market structure has become more diversified, and the industry’s risk diversification ability has improved. In 2015, my country’s fabric workwear accounted for 38.6% of total exports, an increase of 1.2 percentage points from 2014, maintaining a stable export market share.
The operating efficiency of enterprises in the fabric industry has improved. In the first three quarters of 2016, the sales profit margin of fabric enterprises above designated size was 5%, the same as the same period last year; the turnover rate of finished products was 20.8 times/year, and the total asset turnover rate was 1.6 times/year, which were 3.1% faster than the same period last year. and 0.5%; the third fee ratio was 6%, down 0.1 percentage points from the same period last year, indicating that the ability of industry enterprises to use funds to make profits has improved. The connection between the industry and the end market is basically smooth. In the first three quarters, the sales profit margins of the home textiles, workwear and industrial fabrics industries were 5.7%, 5.3% and 5.9% respectively, all higher than the industry average.
The prosperity index of the fabric industry has improved. According to a tracking survey of more than 300 companies in the industry by the Industrial Economic Research Institute of the China Fabric Industry Federation, the industry prosperity index in the third quarter was 57.1, which was basically the same as in the second quarter and 4.7 percentage points higher than the index in the same period last year. Since 2016, it has shown a gradual decline. The rebound trend provides support for the smooth operation of the industry. Among them, the new orders index, finished product sales price index, raw material purchase price index and employee index have increased to varying degrees compared with the second quarter, indicating positive changes in the supply and demand relationship in the fabric workwear product market, injecting confidence into the next step of industry investment and consumption.
The external situation faced by the fabric industry is still complex and severe. Economic growth is weak, trade protectionism has risen, the growth rate of trade in goods has slowed down, market demand continues to be sluggish, and manufacturing costs remain at the highest level. Still high, but the industry continues to deepen transformation and upgrading, actively implements various supply-side reform measures, and basically achieves steady growth in the industry. Preliminary estimates show that the fabric industry is expected to maintain stable operation in 2016 and will soon usher in the industry’s peak consumption season. It is estimated that the decline in exports can be narrowed, and the growth of macroeconomics and residents’ income can support the industry’s domestic sales to maintain the current level.
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