Recently, the second wave of the epidemic in Europe has worsened rapidly, and many governments have urgently introduced relevant control measures. The worsening of the epidemic has once again affected the textile industry. According to Mr. Bu, some parts of the UK have recently experienced a long holiday due to the rebound of the epidemic, and many British clothing manufacturers have been suspended. “For the recently completed batch of orders, since customers in the UK are currently on holiday, and it is expected to be until mid-December, they asked me to postpone the shipment. Although the shipment is currently suspended, I am still worried that it will be canceled after a long time. .” said Mr. Luo of the foreign trade company.
Mr. Luo also said that during the holidays, not only could the goods not be shipped, but no new orders could be placed. In other words, the period from November to the end of the year was originally the peak season for the foreign trade market, but now it may become the off-season due to the impact of the epidemic again. If according to the British holiday timing, it will resume in mid-December, and the Christmas holiday will be ushered in on December 25. It’s already January when we resume work again, and February will usher in the Chinese New Year. Based on this calculation, there is only one short month left in January for the two parties to connect. For Mr. Luo, he no longer expects to receive new orders before the year, but only hopes that the orders he has completed can be delivered smoothly.
There is not much time left for textile people in 2020, so the market situation in the remaining two months has attracted much attention, especially in terms of foreign trade. In previous years, it was the time when foreign trade orders were launched. So can the next peak season of the foreign trade market arrive as promised?
Foreign trade export orders still increase instead of falling
In the first three quarters, my country’s textile exports, including masks, were 828.78 billion yuan, an increase of 37.5%. Judging from this export data, my country’s foreign trade is gradually recovering. Even with the recurrence of overseas epidemics, the entire foreign trade market still shows an upward trend.
A trader exporting to the United States revealed: “The clothing we export to the United States is through a Japanese fabric trading company. Last year, the total order sales were only 10 million. So far this year, sales have reached 30 million. Although affected by the epidemic this year, the unit volume has increased. This is mainly due to the epidemic reducing residents’ purchasing power. Clothing is mainly at mid-to-low-end prices, while fabrics produced in China It has a higher price advantage, so all the orders that the Japanese company could produce on its own were placed with me.”
In other words, as a rigidly needed product, clothing still has a certain demand, but it is just a requirement of consumption. On the decline, clothing with mid- to low-end prices is more popular. Therefore, for some traders with stable customer sources, the impact of the epidemic this year will be very small, and there is still the possibility that orders will increase instead of falling. Looking at the downstream printing and dyeing market, many market participants expect that the printing and dyeing market will decline with the end of Double Eleven, but this is not the case. The printing and dyeing market is still crowded, with little change from the previous boom. The operating rate of the dye vat is still maintained at around 90%. Some printing and dyeing factories are still queuing up, but for some factories, the amount of gray fabric entering the warehouse has decreased, and the operating rate has dropped. But overall, there is not much difference from the market situation in October. What supports this wave of market conditions is the volume of orders placed in the domestic sales market and the foreign trade market. Therefore, the current domestic and foreign sales market conditions are good. From this time to the end of each year, it is a peak season for the foreign trade market, which is expected to strengthen in the future.
“Black Friday” may stimulate clothing consumption
News on November 18, US pharmaceutical companies Pfizer announced that the vaccine jointly developed by it and the German biotechnology company BioNTech was 95% effective in the final data analysis of clinical trials. It has met the requirements for emergency use authorization and will submit an application to the regulatory authorities within a few days. Optimistic prospects for vaccine rollout may help drive consumption.
Although as the epidemic worsens, supermarket chains and grocery stores abroad have also restarted restrictive measures to control the flow of people. However, Walmart, a large supermarket chain, said that it will not give up the annual event of the retail industry, this year’s Black Shopping Festival on November 27, and will continue to promote sales.The activity is divided into 3 parts, which has achieved a diversion effect. The foreign Black Shopping Festival is similar to the domestic Double Eleven. Clothing is also a major consumption category, which is bound to bring about a wave of inventory destocking. And the purchasing power of this wave of clothing will directly affect the order volume in the next and next year.
Fast fashion is characterized by “fast, ruthless and accurate”. It has driven the global fashion trend. ZARA, H&M, Uniqlo, etc. are typical representatives of fast fashion clothing brands. In addition to the characteristics of “fast, ruthless and accurate”, “multiple batches and small batches” is also a characteristic of fast fashion. Under the epidemic, clothing sales have dropped sharply, and brand owners have become more cautious in purchasing quantities. Therefore, we are more willing to adopt the fast fashion model and take the short-term and quick-order route. Mr. Shen, a trader exporting to the United States, said: “This year, American customers are following the 4-week model, that is, there is only 4 weeks of production time from fabric to ready-made garments. They have also started this fast fashion model and do not stock up in advance. , once the inventory is in short supply, replenish it immediately to avoid the backlog of inventory, so the production cycle is very short.” Next Friday, Europe and the United States will usher in the Black Shopping Festival. After some rush for goods, some clothing stocks may be in short supply, so it will soon appear The possibility of a wave of replenishment orders will also increase.
Postscript
Therefore, there is still some good news in the foreign trade market, and textile people should not lose confidence. The outlook for the foreign trade market amid the interweaving of bulls and bears may be somewhat unclear, and caution is still needed in stocking raw materials, preparing gray fabrics, and preparing spot goods.
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