Geographical conflict stands at the C position, becoming a new hot spot in the industry
2019 has just come to an end, and at the beginning of the new year, the world of crude oil has undergone a sudden change. After the United States carried out beheading operations against Iran last Friday (January 3), crude oil and gold soared!
This “black swan” caused financial markets all over the world to panic. In just a few days, the United States and Iran became hot spots in the market, and polyester, which had been dormant for a long time, became a hot spot in the market. The market is booming!
On January 6, the prices of various products in the polyester industry chain rose sharply.
In terms of PTA futures, the main PTA futures 2005 contract closed at 5098 points at 15:00 on January 6, an increase of 104 points or 2.08% from the previous trading day.
In terms of ethylene glycol futures, the closing price of the main 2005 contract of ethylene glycol futures on January 6 was 4753 points, which was higher than the previous trading day. 110 points, an increase of 2.37%.
On January 7, the price of polyester filament, the mainstream bulk textile raw material, was also 50-150 yuan. of increase.
For example: polyester yarn from a factory in Jiangsu has increased by 100 yuan/ton, polyester yarn POY from a factory in Taicang has increased by 50 yuan/ton, and the discount has been cancelled, and FDY from a factory in Wujiang has increased by 100 yuan/ton. , DTY of a factory in Xiaoshan increased by 100-150 yuan/ton, DTY of a factory in Zhejiang increased by 50-100 yuan/ton…
For raw material people, this wave of hard-won market conditions is really not easy. From the early downstream market research, many textile bosses are not very enthusiastic about stocking up on raw materials at the end of the year. There are even a few business owners who choose not to stock up on raw materials and purchase them as needed. Most bosses choose to prepare a little more, but no more than 1 monthly dosage.
After half a month, boosted by geopolitics, downstream manufacturers’ stockpiling of raw materials seems to have changed. Judging from the recent production and sales, the enthusiasm of downstream manufacturers to obtain goods has improved. Manufacturers have more or less stockpiling operations, especially for conventional products, and the stocking volume is higher than in the previous period.
But the market situation comes and goes quickly. After production and sales exceeded 100 on the 3rd and 6th, this wave of stocking “died down”, and production and sales fell to 5 in the past two days. into the following.
At the end of the year, the price of raw materials coincides with the increase. Can the cloth boss not sit still? !
The polyester filament market has been in a stalemate in the early stage. The main reason is that the downstream purchasing enthusiasm has not been high. At the same time, the lack of good news is also one of the reasons why the downstream continues to wait and see. one.
In addition, polyester filament has been on the rise recently, and its price is at an all-time low. For those factories with low raw material inventories, under the current environment, the price of polyester filament has recently increased. The price of polyester filament is still quite attractive.
After all, it was customary for weaving companies to stock up before the holidays in previous years. Under stimulation, the demand for raw material procurement will also improve. After all, it is almost the end of the year. According to usual practice, it is unlikely that raw materials will fall. However, if geopolitics continues to ferment, it will further drive up the price of polyester raw materials. Then after the start of the new year, there is a high probability that the raw material market will have a “good start” , so many textile bosses who were not originally planning to stock up on raw materials have recently bought some raw materials to “nearly” them!
Mr. Wang, who owns 300 water-jet looms in Wujiang area, said: “I recently bought some raw materials, mainly conventional polyester FDY75D. First, it is a rigid demand, and second, it is the market. I have to prepare some.”
Imitation silk products are Mr. Wang’s main product. At the end of December, he was not optimistic about the raw material market and believed that it had not yet reached the bottom. Therefore, he did not have a strong intention to stock up. This time the market was detonated by the “US-Iran issue”, which caught him off guard and immediately contacted the raw material factory to purchase raw materials.
Mr. Li from another company that specializes in polyester taffeta and pongee fabrics said that the factory has prepared about 2 months of raw material inventory, which is one month longer than originally planned. On the one hand, some orders have already been received after the year, on the other hand, it is believed that the benefits of the continuous rise in raw materials are not yet clear, but the possibility of a sharp drop in prices is not high.
“Have to buy” has recently become the sentiment of cloth bosses when purchasing raw materials. After all, we have just experienced a bad year in 2019. Many textile bosses do not have much “surplus grain” on hand, and a lot of cash is piled in warehouses.
Therefore, even if the price of raw materials rises at the end of the year, cloth bosses will not spend a lot of money to purchase raw materials, and will still control the stocking of raw materials to about one month. However, the procurement cycle is about one week longer than the previous one.
How far can this market go? clothThe board is generally pessimistic!
Recently, many market participants believe that in the context of multiple overlapping political cycles around the world, geopolitics is likely to become the main factor affecting crude oil prices throughout this year. One of the factors is that oil prices may fluctuate or intensify. For the textile industry, crude oil is the most upstream of the entire industry chain and plays a certain role. However, if the crude oil factor continues to fluctuate, its impact on the polyester industry chain will gradually decrease, and its sustainability will be compromised.
This is indeed the case. On January 8, the US-Iran issue continued to escalate, but the impact on the polyester industry chain was much smaller than the day before yesterday. On January 8, after opening high, PTA and MEG lacked sustainability and closed slightly higher at the end of the day. Polyester filament prices also maintained a stable trend.
The main PTA 2005 contract of Zhengzhou Commercial Exchange closed at 5,032 yuan/ton, a slight increase of 8 yuan/ton, or 0.16%, compared with the settlement price on the previous trading day.
The main MEG 2005 contract of Dalian Commodity Exchange closed at 4,793 yuan/ton, an increase of 88 yuan/ton, or 1.87%, compared with the settlement price on the previous trading day.
For this time, crude oil The rise in the chemical fiber industry chain driven by this may coincide with the year-end stocking season of downstream weaving manufacturers, so the effect is more “significant” than the previous “price-for-volume” operation. Nowadays, the production of weaving manufacturers has entered a countdown, the operating load of major clusters has been declining, the demand for raw materials has also dropped slightly, and the continued intention to stock up is not as good as in the previous period.
The current operating rate of looms in Jiangsu and Zhejiang has dropped to about 50-60%, and most textile bosses in peripheral factories have already taken vacation. Mr. Shen, who runs a factory in northern Jiangsu, said he is not optimistic about the market after the start of the new year, because the terminal demand has not released a good signal, customers are still cautious in placing orders, the market situation has been suppressed from bottom to top, and the purchase intention of raw materials has also been reduced. It will only stop at purchasing on demand.
But from the perspective of polyester filament, the maintenance efforts of polyester manufacturers during the Spring Festival this year can be It is relatively large, and now multiple sets of filament and short fiber devices are scheduled for maintenance:
This week, two sets of 400,000-ton polymerized filament devices at a POY factory in Taicang will be shut down for the 7th. Maintenance is expected to restart on January 31; Siyang No. 1 Factory’s two polymer spinning filament units totaling 500,000 tons were shut down for maintenance on the 5th and are expected to restart in early February.
As polyester manufacturers start maintenance work one after another around the Spring Festival, the market’s operating load will further decline, which will provide certain support for its price.
It is now the end of the year, and there is a high probability that polyester filament will end with a “closed door”. Although after the beginning of next year, there are still many uncertain factors in the market, especially The prosperity of the downstream fabric and apparel market has not improved yet, and the terminal downturn will gradually be transmitted upwards. Therefore, it is still “too early” for polyester filament to rise as sharply as in previous years!
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