Recently, the polyester market has experienced price increases again. Especially in the polyester filament market, a consensus seems to have been reached on one price every day. It can be seen that polyester factories are very optimistic about the upcoming traditional peak season, but the downstream demand is real. What is the situation? What does the recent ups and downs in production and sales mean? After mid-September, the peak period of new production capacity will be concentrated. Can the increase in polyester prices withstand the blowout pressure of production capacity? Can the road of gold, silver and silver go as smoothly as in previous years?
Why has the polyester market bucked the trend recently?
1. Low inventory helps, but production and sales fluctuate
According to data monitored by China Silk City Network, mainstream polyester manufacturers have increased prices since mid-August, and polyester-related products have increased by more than 500 yuan/ton. At present, the intention to raise prices is still strong, mainly because polyester factory inventories are generally at low levels. Although most medium and large enterprises that meet environmental protection requirements maintain ultra-high operating rates in production, some areas still show an imbalance between supply and demand. , some product specifications are seriously out of stock. It can be said that the low inventory of polyester factories itself has contributed to the rise in the market.
In July, environmental protection chanted the “tightening curse”, and the market outlook was driven by the expectation that “it is hard to find a piece of cloth”
As we all know, in July there was a wave of water-jet loom rectification in Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions. According to incomplete statistics, more than 150,000 units were eliminated. From July to mid-August, the publicity for water-jet loom rectification reached an unprecedented height. At that time, the policy was not clear, and it was difficult for water-jet loom owners to predict the number and time of closures. judge. In addition, the market is in the off-season, which has led to a decrease in the operating rate of looms. The cautious demand for raw materials has prevented the raw material market from rising in the early stage. With the gradual clarification of policies, and the timing of the traditional peak season in September, Upon arrival, the market for a time had expectations that “it’s hard to find a piece of cloth” under the continued pressure on environmental protection in the market outlook, which pushed the polyester market higher again.
3. Stable and small changes in weaving start-up rate
Although the market in the third quarter was under the pressure of environmental protection rectification, it did not affect the sharp decline in the weaving operation rate. According to monitoring, the weaving operation rate in Shengze area in the third quarter was still maintained at about 70%. In addition to expectations for the market, in fact, the market’s rigid needs and good profits have allowed companies not affected by environmental protection to operate at full capacity, effectively supporting the demand for polyester.
4. The industrial chain has formed an environmental resonance, and the chemical fiber factory has not been shut down but has been involved in production restrictions
Since the environmental protection inspection team stationed in Zhejiang last month, the industrial chain of the textile printing and dyeing industry in Jiangsu and Zhejiang has been shut down for rectification. Of course, the printing and dyeing industry is the most serious, followed by the weaving industry. According to industry insiders, although chemical fiber companies are not involved Shut down, but also required to limit production, which has had a certain impact on supply in the near future.
Polyester’s “gold nine, silver ten” road may have ups and downs!
Although the market is still in an upward channel recently, as the market ushered in the “Golden Nine and Silver Ten” in the future, some unfavorable factors are also fermenting. The polyester market may have ups and downs on the “Golden Nine and Silver Ten” road!
1. The elimination point for water-jet looms has not yet arrived, and the weaving end may face a sharp contraction in production capacity.
As mentioned above, when the water-jet loom elimination policy was introduced, the industry was shocked by the intensity of its publicity. Industry insiders generally believed that the gradual shutdown of small and medium-sized and inefficient downstream weaving production capacity would affect the demand for polyester, and the policy was also clear. The time point for closure has been required in the past three years. From the information released by various towns in Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions, it can be seen that the important time point for a large number of task indicators to be phased out this year is at the end of November. This part of the phased-out production capacity can still operate well in the early stage of this node. However, as the water-jet loom phase-out node arrives, the weaving end may face a sharp contraction in production capacity.
2. New production capacity will be put into operation in September and October, and supply will increase
It is understood that according to the start-up and restart of downstream polyester factories, the polyester production and restart capacity reached 2.14 million tons in September. Of course, Tongkun plans to relocate and shut down its 350,000 tons/year device in early September. If all polyester factories restart as planned and add at least 500,000 tons of polyester production, equivalent to 450,000 tons of PTA consumption, polyester production in September is expected to exceed 4 million tons. This will be a big negative blow to the polyester market that was originally under tight downstream demand.
3. The weaving market’s expectations for the “Golden Nine and Silver Ten” period have decreased
The continuous implementation of environmental protection policies will be beneficial to the development of the textile industry in the long run.�, industry concentration will effectively increase, but the closure of most downstream companies in the short term has restricted actual demand. Judging from the current situation, the results of environmental protection inspections are direct closure or orders for rectification, which mainly affects dyeing and weaving factories that pollute more. As the market is expected to usher in the peak season demand for the textile market in September, the high pressure of environmental protection has also hindered the recovery speed. Weaving companies are currently restricted in shipments, and some weaving companies are also entangled in whether to replenish their inventory in the future. They are afraid of falling. After communicating with the cloth boss, we learned that originally, in anticipation of the peak season, raw material stocking or finished product inventory may be increased, but now they are considering environmental protection. The shutdown issue will lower expectations for the market and increase risk awareness.
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