After the periodic speculation fell back, the market price of PTA has been consolidating around 5100-5200 yuan/ton for more than ten days. There is not much spot and the long and short news of expected decline in demand are confronting. PTA is slightly entangled in resisting the decline in the future market or continuing to fall.
The main reason why PTA is currently resisting the decline is that there is not much spot stock, and the downstream polyester market is not weak in the off-season. Polyester has maintained a high operating load of about 85% for several months in a row, and the demand for PTA is stable. After PTA spot destocking in the second quarter, the number of spot goods and physical warehouse receipts is not large, and Hengli, Honggang and other equipment are still scheduled for maintenance in August. PTA stocks are scarce to resist the decline. September futures delivery is getting closer, and some industry players are even hoping that the unexpected shutdown of the PTA equipment will be beneficial. PTA futures may form a short-term rise in the market.
The main reason why PTA may continue to fall is the decline in demand. Due to the impact of environmental protection and hot weather, the operating load of terminal looms has dropped from about 75% in mid-July to 55% in early August. According to Zhongyu Information statistics, polyester filament production and sales have dropped since July 13 From August 2 to August 2, the daily average was only about 64%, and polyester stocks are rising slowly. In the later period, the loom start-up will continue to decrease, and the polyester yarn inventory will continue to increase. The price reduction and promotion of polyester yarn factories will only aggravate the market’s fear of falling, which will not effectively boost production and sales. In the later period, the polyester yarn start-up load is more likely to decrease, and the demand for PTA will weaken.
The negative demand has just begun to be released, suppressing the market from the bottom up, and the market fear of falling has intensified. However, the positive release of PTA shortage is coming to an end. In the later period, the negative demand will dominate the market. Zhongyu Information predicts that the short-term PTA market outlook will fluctuate and fall.
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