In June and July, the traditional off-season for textiles, “up, up, up, up” has become synonymous with polyester filament! Whether it is the daily limit or jump in the PTA futures spot market, the enthusiastic purchasing and rush for goods in the downstream market, or the polyester manufacturers alliance meeting and the rise in crude oil, all of them are driving the wave of price increases for polyester filament. Have a wave!
Finally, when the markets of all parties have returned to calm, the polyester filament market has also calmed down the wave of price increases since mid-July. However, the chemical fiber bosses said that they can’t sit still anymore and will wait until now if they don’t take action!
After you sing, I will take the stage! The POY Alliance meeting will be held again!
It is reported that the POY4+2 meeting was held in Shengze on July 19, only half a month after the last meeting. It is reported that analysis at the meeting showed that although the market has been stable recently, the rise in upstream petrochemical products in the early stage has raised melt costs. Coarse denier products above 150D are still on the verge of losing money (breakeven), and polyester filament stocks continue to run at low levels. From the start of weaving The rate remains high and the business of downstream dyeing factories is booming. The ordering cycle is long. Generally speaking, polyester filament is easy to rise but difficult to fall in the short term. Some varieties with tight supply will choose the opportunity to gradually increase prices and reduce losses, and appropriately replenish positions based on their own needs.
Crude oil rebounded strongly, rising to a new six-week high!
As U.S. crude oil inventories fell more than market expectations last week, and gasoline and refined oil inventories also fell sharply, international crude oil futures surged strongly after the release of EIA data, rising to a six-week closing high. As of the close on the 19th, WTI August crude oil futures closed up 1.55% at US$47.12/barrel; Brent September crude oil futures closed up 1.76% at US$49.70/barrel.
The chemical fiber giants stepped in to “spoil the situation”, and in conjunction with the strong rise in international oil prices, the market reaction was naturally unsurprising. On July 20, Tongkun POY price increased by 50-100 yuan/ton; Xinfengming POY increased by 100-200 yuan/ton, FDY filament increased by 100 yuan/ton, and DTY part increased by 100-150 yuan/ton; Shenghong’s FDY quotation increased by 50-100 yuan/ton; Shuangtu’s quotation increased by 50-100 yuan/ton; Yingxiang POY increased by 100 yuan/ton, FDY and DTY increased by 100-200 yuan/ton… .
In fact, for chemical fiber manufacturers, under the rising cost pressure of upstream petrochemical products, the profit margins of various polyester products have indeed shrunk significantly, and some products may even be on the verge of breaking even. From the profit comparison of some polyester products calculated by us in the figure below, we can see that no matter whether it is FDY, POY or DTY, each product has a certain degree of profit shrinkage month-on-month, especially DTY’s profit shrinkage is the most obvious; in addition, compared with the same period last year , there is also the phenomenon of reduced profits.
Although the analysis of the current situation at the polyester conference is indeed reasonable, for the downstream market, the production and sales of polyester filament in the previous stage have exploded, and the inventory of polyester manufacturers has dropped significantly to around 6-19 days, especially in the FDY and POY parts. Product inventories have been reduced to less than five days, and some are even at zero inventory or oversold. Where did all this inventory go? It must be passed on to downstream weaving manufacturers or traders.
Therefore, this time, downstream weaving manufacturers and traders did not meet the expectations of polyester filament manufacturers. As soon as the market was stimulated, they started purchasing and stocking up. Perhaps it is due to the experience gained, or perhaps due to the pressure of early stocking, the downstream market did not dare to make a move hastily. It is reported that the overall production and sales of the polyester yarn market on the 20th were not satisfactory. In fact, in recent days, the purchasing enthusiasm of the downstream market has obviously weakened, and the overall production and sales of the polyester yarn market have dropped significantly.
In the current situation of shrinking polyester filament profits and low inventories, the chemical fiber giants grouping together to support prices may have an effective impact on the polyester market in the short term; however, the subsequent rise or fall of polyester prices will ultimately depend on It requires cooperation from the downstream demand side. Chemical fiber manufacturers must be serious about the fact that measures such as the reduction of production capacity of water-jet looms and environmental rectification in various places will have an unstoppable impact on the demand side.
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