Breaking news: It is reported that the 700,000 tons/year PTA unit of Ningbo Liwan (Mitsubishi) stopped on July 13. It is said that the air compressor failed.
As soon as this news came out, it once again injected a “boost in the arm” into the PTA market, which has been going like a “mad cow” recently.
On July 14, the PTA futures of Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange made a “surge” and achieved “five consecutive rises”, almost reaching the daily limit, touching 5,400 points! The main 1709 contract closed up again at the end of the day, closing at 5,390 yuan/ton. Compared with the settlement price on the previous trading day, it increased significantly by 102 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.93%; compared with the daily closing price on the 10th , a sharp increase of 444 yuan/ton, with an increase of 8.98% during the week.
The PTA spot market is naturally also rising, not only breaking through the 5,000 yuan mark, but the pace of price increase has also climbed strongly since then. It is reported that the current quotation in the internal market has risen sharply to the level of 5350-5400 yuan/ton, which has increased by nearly 500 yuan/ton during the week; it has also reached a high in nearly four months since early March.
Tight supply can be said to be the fundamental driving force for PTA’s recent strong surge. Recently, the news that Hengli Petrochemical (Dalian) Co., Ltd. extended its shutdown for maintenance due to equipment failure has attracted widespread attention in the chemical fiber industry. Some market professionals said that this was the trigger for PTA’s crazy surge. Hengli Petrochemical issued an announcement on the 13th. The specific contents are as follows:
However, stimulated by the news that the restart of the Hengli plant was delayed, the PTA market has indeed changed from its previous decline. The supply side has exerted force, and the pace of market destocking has accelerated. Bulls have staged a surge in the market with the help of funds. The favorable supply and demand aspects have effectively supported the PTA market to enter an upward channel.
This wave of PTA bullish market can be said to have completely set the polyester filament market on fire, pushing the polyester market to a “climax”. Rising prices have become the norm in the polyester raw material market! However, the rising cost and price of upstream raw materials has affected the market. The cost pressure of polyester manufacturers must exist invisibly; it has become a double-edged cost sword!
With the strong increase in the cost of upstream raw materials, profit compression is quite obvious whether it is FDY, which has the most outstanding growth, or products such as POY and DTY. In just five days, according to calculations, the profit of FDY 150D fell from a high of 1,000 yuan to 858 yuan/ton, a significant drop of 260 yuan/ton, a drop of about 23.25%, which is considered the smallest drop. The profit of DTY 150D shrank significantly by 310 yuan/ton to 458 yuan/ton, a decline of 40.36%. In addition, according to calculations, the profit margin of POY 150D also dropped sharply to 308 yuan/ton, with a decline of about 43.80% in just five days.
Due to differences in process control and raw material purchase prices among various manufacturers, the above cost accounting is inevitably different and is for reference only. However, it is an indisputable fact that the profits of polyester manufacturers have shrunk significantly! Polyester big guys, are prices going to rise again?
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