Introduction: Recently, the collision between two ships at the China Resources Petrochemical Terminal and Hengli Petrochemical’s notice to reduce contract supply in July and August have become the trigger for the rise of polyester raw materials.
Incident 1: Around 22:40 on the 9th, two ships collided near the China Resources Petrochemical Terminal located in the New Taipei section of Changzhou, Yangtze River, causing the terminal to collapse and the loading and unloading pipelines torn and burned. The accident caused no casualties. As of 6:00 on the 10th, no abnormalities were found in the water quality at the environmental protection site monitoring points and the water plant monitoring data.
Subsequently, China Resources Chemical Warehousing Co., Ltd. also issued a relevant statement confirming the incident.
We learned from the published letter that the warehouse area currently stated that due to the severe damage to the Changzhou China Resources Terminal and loading and unloading pipelines in this accident, ships exceeding 2,000 tons are prohibited from operating on the storage terminal in the near future, with only two hours of operation. Terminals and truck freight sources can load and unload goods normally.
According to the official website of China Resources Chemical, the Warehousing Division of China Resources Chemical is one of the three major business divisions of China Resources Chemical Holdings Co., Ltd., a subsidiary of China Resources (Group) Co., Ltd., a central state-owned holding enterprise. At present, the overall planning is for a storage capacity of 960,000 cubic meters, and it has two storage bases in Changzhou and Changshu. Changzhou: Invested and established in January 2010, with a registered capital of 350 million yuan and an area of 650 acres. It is a third-party warehousing and logistics company specializing in terminal unloading and warehousing services for liquid chemicals. It is also a comprehensive supporting warehousing and logistics service provider for chemical companies in Changzhou Binjiang Chemical Park and surrounding areas.
Varieties of liquid chemicals that can be unloaded and stored
Alcohols: methanol, ethylene glycol, diethylene glycol, propylene glycol, n-butanol, isopropyl alcohol
Aromatic hydrocarbons: styrene, pure benzene, o-benzene, toluene, xylene, p-xylene, trimylene, solvent oil, dearomatized solvent oil, mixed aromatics
Olefins: ethylene, propylene, butylene, butadiene, vinyl chloride, propylene oxide, C4, C5
Phenols and ketones: phenol, acetone, butanone
Oil: white oil, base oil
Others: sec-butyl acetate, ethyl acetate, methylene chloride, chloroform, dicyclopentene, sulfur, sulfuric acid, industrial naphthalene, acrylic acid, methyl acetate, aniline, N-methylaniline
Event 2: Hengli Petrochemical issued a notice to reduce contract supply in July and August
On the other hand, a notice from Hengli Petrochemical about the reduction in contract supply in July and August also contributed to the flames at the same time. The adjustment letter stated that since Hengli Line 1 was shut down for maintenance due to a malfunction on June 23, The inventory planned for maintenance can no longer support the delivery of the July contract. At the same time, measures have been introduced to reduce the execution volume of the July contract and reduce the supply of the August contract by 80%. The reduction in PTA contract volume has led to tight expectations for subsequent supply in the market.
Emergency events detonate the recent polyester industry chain
These two emergencies have strongly affected the upstream market of polyester chips, PTA and ethylene glycol. On the 10th, PTA futures experienced a long-awaited surge, while ethylene glycol also continued to rise, with strong support from the raw material side, which lasted for nearly a week. The price stalemate has been detonated again, resulting in a general increase in polyester chips and polyester filament.
On the 11th, PTA futures reached the daily limit, with the main futures closing at 5,200 yuan/ton, a recent record high. Polyester filament manufacturers also contributed to the situation, and the second price increase and market closure occurred again in the afternoon. It can be said that this emergency broke the lukewarm pattern of polyester raw materials and became a booster for polyester filament that was already in the rising channel.
In the long run, ship collisions are more driven by emergencies, and shipments from polyester raw material factories have not been affected. According to industry sources, an ethylene pipeline was damaged at the China Resources Petrochemical Terminal. The cargo carried on the “Tiansheng 18” cargo ship and the “Shuang Long Hai” cargo ship were aromatic hydrocarbon products. The cargo carried by the ship was owned by a major phthalic anhydride factory in Changzhou. After the accident, it did not affect the factory production, and the factory personnel It said that the probability of the device shutting down due to this accident is not high. It can be said that judging from the impact of the emergency alone, the impact of this incident on the domestic polyester raw material market is limited.
From the fundamentals of the PTA market, the current PTA production capacity of Hengli Petrochemical Dalian is 6.6 million tons, and the first phase is 2.2 million tons. If production is suspended for two months as described, it will be more than 360,000 tons. At present, the inventory pressure in the PTA market has been relieved. , under the situation of tight supply and demand, it has obviously given the PTA market another opportunity.An upward boost. On the other hand, low inventory and high demand and mentality of polyester manufacturers have become key factors that dominate the market.
In the short term, the market will heat up again. But what cannot be ignored is that some unstable factors in the market are continuing to ferment.
1. Hidden worries amid rising market sentiment. After nearly a month of soaring prices, the price of polyester yarn has increased by more than 2,000 yuan. With rising costs, whether downstream weaving can still pay for it is a question that upstream manufacturers should consider. On the other hand, the hype in the gray fabric market is no weaker than that in the raw material market. According to the author’s understanding, I have heard that a large number of middlemen have been hoarding hot-selling fabrics in recent times. Now that the market is good, cash and spot goods are common, and there are also many brands. Intermediaries sell goods due to funding problems. When the market weakens and funds are scarce, this subsequent hoarding may become the trigger for a sharp decline in the market.
2. The hot sales in the early weaving market have become the key factors that dominate the polyester filament market. However, July and August are the off-seasons in the traditional off-season. Can downstream terminals continue to maintain the off-season? At present, except for some conventional goods such as polyester taffeta and imitation silk, which are still selling well in the market, other products have experienced a major decline.
At least in the author’s opinion, the polarization of the weaving market is becoming more and more obvious, and the risks in the market outlook are constantly changing.
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