After falling below the 5,000 yuan/ton mark in late April, PTA futures prices have been fluctuating between 4,700 yuan/ton and 5,000 yuan/ton for more than 2 months. During this period, the market trading atmosphere was light, positions fell, and prices The low consolidation seems to have been forgotten by the market.
On the night of July 10th, the PTA market increased its position by 150,000 lots, and the futures price rose sharply. The day price continued to rise on the 11th and closed at the daily limit. From the K-line chart, a long Optimus Prime broke through the original operating range. Futures prices have returned to levels last seen at the end of March.
Hot spots in the commodity market are frequent today, showing that rebar futures continued to rise in early trading, standing firm at the 3,500 yuan mark and hitting a four-month high. The futures market closed broadly in the red, with black stocks rising strongly in the afternoon and falling slightly in late trading. Rebar rose by nearly 4%, hot coil and coke rose by more than 3%, and coking coal rose by more than 2%; chemicals collectively rose in the red, and PTA closed its daily limit. , asphalt rose by more than 3%; most non-ferrous metals rose in the red.
At the beginning of July, the traditional demand is not weak in the off-season. The market price of PTA has increased and production has turned a profit. July has a “good start”. Is it the legendary “five poverty, six excellence and seven turnaround”?
It is understood that the main benefit of the PTA market is that the demand for downstream chemical fibers is not weak in the off-season, especially polyester filament yarns with high production and sales and low inventory. The continuous price increases of polyester filament yarns support the market, driving the market to chase the rise.
In addition, the high operating load of polyester filament ensures stable and rigid demand for PTA, boosting the PTA market mentality. Zhongyu Information believes that there is currently no pressure on polyester filament stocks, and PTA demand in July maintains preference expectations.
In early trading on July 11, there were rumors in the market that Hengli’s 2.2 million-ton unit could not be started as scheduled due to a refining equipment failure and might be delayed by 1-2 months. There are many versions at this stage, and the specific driving time cannot be determined. Calculated based on a one-month delay, the supply will be affected by 180,000 tons, and the current physical warehouse receipts are 450,000 tons.
Considering that the probability of device resumption before 2009 is extremely low, the processing fee indicator may be passivated at this stage. After the restart of several sets of devices for early maintenance, high processing fees may no longer increase supply. In this regard, Essence Futures analyst Pang Chunyan said that the supply and demand side of the PTA market did not change in one day, but the market began to explode on the night of July 10.
Essence Futures analyst Pang Chunyan said that the main contract hit the daily limit at 1709 on July 11, mainly due to news that the restart time of Hengli Petrochemical’s 2.2 million tons unit may be delayed. The market is full of speculation about this, and there are rumors that its refining equipment is faulty. , the restart may be delayed by 1-2 months. The four former domestic PTA giants, Xianglu Petrochemical and Far East Petrochemical, have been parked for a long time. Currently, only Yisheng Petrochemical and Hengli Petrochemical are left to dominate the world.
Among them, Hengli Dalian has 6.6 million tons of equipment. If 2.2 million tons of them are shut down for one month, the production loss involved will exceed 180,000 tons. The production loss after two months of shutdown will be more than 360,000 tons. Reignwood Petrochemical (formerly Far East Petrochemical), which was originally expected to restart, may delay the restart of its 1.4 million-ton unit until the fourth quarter. Therefore, concerns about increased supply are temporarily suspended. Under the premise that inventory pressure in the PTA market has eased and supply and demand are tight, this news undoubtedly increases bullish expectations.
However, the specific information of the Hengli device has yet to be confirmed. If the device can be restarted in advance, supply concerns in the PTA market will be alleviated, and fluctuations in market sentiment may cause violent fluctuations in the market.
In fact, it can be seen from the past market trends of PTA that the main force’s control rhythm is extremely meticulous. After all, the current situation of Hengli cannot be said to be too absolute. Therefore, as an investor in the market, it is better to be cautious.
In addition, domestic industrial product futures generally rose in shock, perhaps because the domestic financial pressure in June was less than the market imagined, and due to many favorable factors such as infrastructure construction, environmental inspections, and restrictions on coal imports at some ports, the rise in black sector futures led to the rise of industrial products. The overall atmosphere of futures speculation was high. Domestic chemical futures once ignored the negative impact of the decline in crude oil, and PTA futures increased their positions.
However, as prices rise, market investors cannot ignore the bad news in the market, which is mainly concentrated on the uncertainty of the increase in PTA’s starting load and the decline in demand in the later period. Recently, Zhuhai BP, Hanbang Petrochemical, Hengli Petrochemical, and Yangzi Petrochemical Many maintenance PTA devices will be restarted one after another. According to Zhongyu Information statistics, in early July, PTA restarted production capacity of 6.25 million tons/year and maintenance capacity of 1.26 million tons/year. Domestic PTA operating load will increase by about 6%.
In addition, polyester filament has experienced a large increase in speculation and due to environmental issues, the terminal loom load has dropped, and the weather is hot. The demand for polyester yarn may drop at any time, resulting in a lack of market confidence. PTA has mainly suffered production losses in recent years. According to the usual practice, PTA production is currently slightly profitable, which may trigger short futures funds to increase their positions.
In the short term, the bullish sentiment needs to continue to be released, and the strong futures price pattern is expected to continue; however, the sustainability of excessively rapid rises is not strong. Once funds leave the market, PTA’s rebound may terminate.
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