In the past month, the price of polyester filament has increased a lot. The price of FDY150D has increased from 8,025 yuan/ton on June 3 to 8,750 yuan/ton on July 3.
At the same time, the usual reasons for rising polyester prices, such as PTA going crazy, ethylene glycol going crazy, etc., have not appeared recently. Although crude oil has risen, it has fallen first and then risen. Generally speaking, although upstream petrochemical raw materials have Fluctuating, but basically maintaining stability; although the downstream market is okay, the overall market availability rate is only about 70%, and it has not reached the point where supply exceeds demand and causes price increases.
Is it because of the country?
Recently, the author saw an article that described a detail, which seemed to provide some clues about the price increase of polyester. The article describes that as China’s supply-side reform deepens, the country has begun to take action on industries with overcapacity, and one of the most important means is to tighten bank loans.
What evidence is there? Don’t tell me, I was actually found by the editor. In a survey conducted by the People’s Daily, an executive deputy manager of Jiangsu Shenjiu Chemical Fiber said that due to the overall overcapacity of the chemical fiber industry, banks have adopted a “one size fits all” approach to the entire chemical fiber industry since the first quarter of 2017. Lending is tighter than in previous years.
According to general rules, after the scale reaches a certain level, bank loans will become a crucial link in the enterprise’s capital chain. For a company to survive, in addition to making good products, maintaining a healthy capital chain is also an important part.
According to data from the Industrial Economic Research Institute of the Textile Industry Federation, the overall profit of my country’s chemical fiber industry was around 5% in 2017, which was a significant increase compared with the same period last year.
But if the profits of chemical fiber factories are high, how can they eliminate backward production capacity? In order to achieve the goal of cutting overcapacity, the country can only use more drastic measures. Although the “one-size-fits-all” approach is easily criticized, it is simple and crude and has significant effects.
Therefore, in the first half of this year, a strange phenomenon occurred in many chemical fiber companies – although their profits have improved, their lives are not better than before.
The author speculates that this price increase is just a way for chemical fiber companies to test the market’s reaction and make their own lives easier. After all, the pressure from banks has increased. At the same time, in order not to be eliminated, we must seize the time to update equipment and develop new products, which all cost money.
Downstream performance is basically calm
On the other hand, judging from the feedback I got from visiting the market, the price of chemical fiber has increased, but the sales volume of filament has not changed very strangely. The downstream weaving manufacturers are neither rushing to buy nor waiting and watching. Buy as much as you need. Acting unusually calm.
Why? It’s very simple. The days of rising by 1,000 a week are over, and now rising by 1,000 a month is nothing compared to it.
And what about those companies that can’t bear if the price of raw materials rises by several hundred? These companies will naturally be eliminated or transformed to produce high-efficiency products.
For example, when making products using the same raw materials, due to differences in product type, production process, technical level, etc., the profit per unit gram of the product may range from a few cents to a few yuan. Assuming that the cost per unit weight increased by 1 yuan due to the sharp rise in raw material prices in the second half of last year, then those manufacturers whose original profits were only a few cents would naturally not be able to receive orders. They would either have to improve their products and raise the price, or they would be eliminated. Those manufacturers that originally had a few yuan in profit were not under any pressure at all, they just made less money.
The price increase this time is not comparable to that at the end of last year. For the companies that have survived, it will not have a big impact, and their performance will naturally be calm.
Forecast of the market outlook: If the author’s conjecture is true, this price increase is just a test of the downstream by polyester manufacturers under the pressure of transformation, and the result of the current test is the ability of the downstream to bear the price increase of polyester. Stronger. The author predicts that the price of polyester will continue to rise in the future.
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