Crude oil has fallen for four consecutive weeks, the longest weekly decline since 2015; and PTA futures have continued to hover below 4,900 points in the past month… The bad news about these raw materials has caused the rise of polyester filament at this stage. Cool down. Recently, the polyester filament prices of many manufacturers in Jiangsu and Zhejiang have remained stable. However, for manufacturers mainly focusing on FDY, polyester filament prices have continued to rise, with prices rising sharply by 300-500 yuan compared with the previous period.
Today, the circle of friends was once again engulfed by the news of FDY price increase.
Since May, the market for polyester filament has continued to weaken and cash flow has continued to decline. However, FDY products have been in a relatively profitable state. The cash flow trends of various polyester filament products in the second quarter of 2017 are as follows:
It is not difficult to find from the picture above that FDY profit margins have increased significantly in recent times, among which the profit level of FDY150D has risen to around 911.4 yuan/ton, a year-on-year increase of nearly 695 yuan/ton.
Relatively speaking, the profit margin of POY and DTY has not increased significantly. Among them, the profit of POY150D is currently 411 yuan/ton, which is an increase of about 270 yuan month-on-month. The profit of DTY150D is currently 761.4 yuan/ton, an increase of about 120 yuan month-on-month.
This round of FDY’s high profitability is inevitably inseparable from the support and drive of the polyester market’s improving production and sales and low inventory.
Since May, weaving manufacturers have been more enthusiastic about stocking up. Mainstream polyester manufacturers can generally achieve over 100 levels, and some are even higher. However, in early May, there was no large-scale centralized replenishment in the polyester market, and the average production and sales of the polyester market were basically flat; until the middle of May, the overall trading atmosphere in the market generally improved. Stimulated by the news, batch replenishment operations began, and the market inquiry atmosphere heated up significantly. The average production and sales of mainstream manufacturers generally exceeded 100, and some better manufacturers even reached 200% and 300% levels.
From the perspective of production and sales, monitoring data shows that the polyester market as a whole has shown a trend of increasing sales since May. The average monthly production and sales of polyester filament are around 100%-110%. Among them, the demand for FDY series has performed well. Several mainstream manufacturers have performed well every month. The domestic average production and sales can reach around 120%, and the company is in a state of smooth destocking.
High production and sales have become a “good medicine” for polyester filament manufacturers to destock. In the past month, under the influence of factors such as fluctuations in the overall production and sales of the polyester market, the inventory of polyester filament market has increased first and then decreased. The inventory of mainstream manufacturers is generally at a low level, which is the lowest level for the year.
According to industry statistics, as of last week, the overall polyester market inventory was concentrated around 11-12 days; POY inventory was around 6-12 days, FDY inventory dropped to around 8-14 days, and DTY inventory was concentrated around 19 days -About 25 days. FDY stocks are reasonably low, which also supports the firm price of FDY.
From a downstream perspective, it is understood that compared with previous years, the market peak season lasted longer this year. As of late June, the fabric market trading remained stable. The supply of imitation silk, polyester taffeta, imitation memory and other products was tight, and some specifications even There is a situation where goods are hard to find. The main raw materials of these fabrics are FDY fine denier yarn, which also makes the price of FDY products strong in June. In recent times, due to the continued sales of Wujiang’s water-jet polyester taffeta, imitation silk and other products, weaving manufacturers have withdrawn funds quickly, and are naturally more enthusiastic about purchasing raw materials, thus driving the purchase of raw materials with specifications such as semi-gloss FDY75D/72F. The supply of FDY specifications in some chemical fiber factories is even tight.
On the other hand, environmental protection regulations in the fabric market this year also play a certain guiding role. The reduction of production capacity and the conversion of manufacturers have led to optimistic prices for some old products. The elimination and transformation of backward production capacity have also made the supply of FDY specifications tight.
In general, at present, the rising prices of fabric gray fabrics and the tight supply of some FDY specifications have enhanced the confidence of industry insiders. The author believes that although the current market is obviously “not slow in the off-season”, market changes still need to be viewed rationally. Although the market outlook is still stimulated by a series of environmental improvement news such as the elimination of water-jet looms, many manufacturers are cautious about the market outlook of FDY products. After July, the possibility of price correction and decline increases, but fortunately Yes, at least this week, FDY product prices will still be in an upward channel.
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