Since December, the polyester market has been enveloped in a “rising” craze. Not only polyester filament has surged by more than a thousand yuan; under the favorable influence of all parties, whether it is polyester chips or polyester staple fiber, it has also From the early sluggish state, it “awakened” strongly. Especially in the past two days, the performance of polyester staple fiber has been extremely eye-catching. The mainstream quotation focus of 1.4D direct-spun polyester staple exceeded the 8,000 yuan mark, reaching a high level of 8,300-8,500 yuan/ton, setting a new high for the year.
As we all know, the cotton market trend is closely related to the market situation of polyester staple fiber; fluctuations in cotton prices directly affect the demand for polyester staple fiber market, thereby boosting or restricting changes in polyester staple fiber prices. Just at the beginning of December, a survey showed that based on the price difference data of 1.4D polyester staple fiber, 1.5D viscose staple fiber and 3128 grade cotton in November, cotton-related enterprises, research institutions and textile authorities began to question cotton. Textile enterprises have doubts and worries about “increasing chemical fiber and reducing cotton” in purchasing.
In recent times, the cotton market has been hovering at a high level. The price of Xinjiang cotton reserves in Hebei, Henan, Shandong and other places is 15,600-15,800 yuan/ton (gross weight, warehouse delivery); the price of reserve real estate cotton is concentrated at 15,150-15,250 yuan/ton. /Ton. The spot price of large bales in real estate in the Yellow River Basin is 16,000 yuan/ton for grade 3128, and the price for small bales of cotton for grade 3 is around 14,500-15,100 yuan/ton. The market expects that cotton prices may not rise sharply before the Spring Festival, but they will still rise slightly or steadily.
Of course, the strong rise in the polyester staple fiber market is not only driven by the high level of cotton, but also benefits from the high degree of cooperation and boost from the upstream and downstream markets.
1. Oil prices hit a 17-month high, with PTA and MEG rising.
This round of sudden and continuous increases in polyester staple fiber prices is naturally inseparable from the rising cost of raw materials. Boosted by positive factors such as the agreement between OPEC and non-OPEC oil-producing countries to reduce production, international oil prices continued to rise. The price of light crude oil futures for January delivery in New York rose to US$52.83 per barrel; for February delivery, London Brent crude oil futures prices closed at $55.69 a barrel, hitting a new high in nearly 17 months.
With the help of bulls, the polyester raw material PTA has also changed its decline and turned into a “little bull”, leading the domestic commodities in terms of increase; under the guidance of futures, the spot price has also risen, and the internal price of PTA has risen to 5300. Yuan/ton level. Stimulated by active capital in the commodity market and tight supply, MEG prices have risen crazily in recent times, hitting new highs repeatedly during the year. On the 12th, the ethylene glycol electronic trading opened at the daily limit, and the spot price followed suit. The trading atmosphere on the market was active, and the market price rose sharply to around 7,500 yuan/ton.
2. Downstream yarn mills purchase moderately and stocks are at low levels
In recent times, the downstream yarn market has also shown a steady upward trend, and the demand side has performed well. At present, the pure polyester yarn market continues to be strong, and the quotations of mainstream products have increased. Among them, the mainstream quotations of 32S pure polyester yarn have risen to around 12,300-12,500 yuan/ton, and the mainstream quotations of 45S pure polyester yarn have been raised to 13,200-13,400 yuan/ton. / ton; in the later period, driven by raw materials, there are still expectations for an increase.
Although downstream yarn manufacturers are relatively resistant to the price increase of polyester staple fiber, there is still some time before the end of the year to suspend production and holidays, and rigid demand from yarn mills still exists. At present, traders and downstream yarn mills are still bullish following the market. There is mostly moderate replenishment. It is reported that the inventories of polyester staple fiber manufacturers are generally at a low level nowadays, and the product inventories of mainstream manufacturers have dropped to 3-7 days, and some are slightly higher.
Taken together, the upstream raw material market continues to strengthen, which to a certain extent provides a cost boost for polyester staple fiber. Affected by high cotton prices, the widening price difference between polyester and cotton has also become a driving force for the rise of polyester staple fiber. important factors. Coupled with the positive boost from the tight supply and demand situation of polyester staple fiber itself, polyester staple fiber is expected to remain in a state of rising but difficult to fall in the short term; in the future, we need to pay close attention to oil prices, polyester manufacturers and the production of downstream yarn manufacturers.
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