Recently, domestic cotton has fluctuated greatly, causing some concerns in the market. As of December 8, the national cotton inspection volume exceeded 3.08 million tons, of which over 3 million tons were in Xinjiang. As supply increases, market uncertainty increases. On December 9, the recent-month CF1701 contract of Zheng cotton closed at 15,540 yuan/ton, and the main CF1705 contract closed at 15,700 yuan/ton. Since this week, Zheng cotton has fluctuated greatly, and the market has been turbulent.
On December 7, Xinjiang’s hand-picked cotton “Double 29” and “Double 30” station delivery prices were 16,000-16,200 yuan/ton, and the price of machine-picked cotton “Double 28” was 15,300-15,400 yuan/ton, remaining stable. However, according to some manufacturers, recently, many mainland buyers have only paid part of the payment for the goods, and most of the remaining balances are due in 20-30 days. If the seller insists on taking delivery of the goods in cash, the transaction cannot proceed. This not only increases the seller’s risk of selling cotton, but also increases the seller’s financial pressure. According to cotton merchants, truck transportation costs from Aksu to the mainland have recently increased by 3-5%. For example, the cost of shipping from Aksu to Shandong has risen to 1,020-1,050 yuan/ton this week, an increase of 50-70 yuan/ton.
Against the background of steady and latent declines in lint cotton, seed cotton prices continued to rise, once again squeezing corporate profit margins. On the 9th, the purchase price of seed cotton in Aksu region was 7.2-7.3 yuan/kg, and the price of long-staple cotton seed cotton was 8.0-8.1 yuan/kg (clothing content 32%, moisture regain 10%). According to enterprise calculations, the current cost of Xinjiang cotton “double 29” is 16,100-16,300 yuan/ton, and the cost of 137-grade long-staple cotton is 20,700-20,900 yuan/ton. The cost and sales are basically the same or slightly higher than the selling price, and the ginner is in a loss. or breakeven status.
At present, the spot price of large bales of real estate in the Yellow River Basin is 16,000 yuan/ton for grade 3128, and the price of small bales of cotton for grade 3 is 14,500-15,100 yuan/ton, both of which remain stable. “Cotton is still easy to rise but difficult to fall in the near future.” On the 9th, a market participant said that this year’s cotton production reduction is a foregone conclusion, and the price of domestic yarn has continued to rise recently. As of the 9th, the prices of general nuclear 32S and 40S from a factory in Shandong were 22,600 yuan/ton and 24,200 yuan/ton respectively, both rising by 300 yuan/ton from the beginning of this week. According to feedback from enterprises, some textile companies in the Yellow River Basin and Yangtze River Basin have recently continued to increase the price of cotton yarn by 200-300 yuan/ton. Moreover, as the Spring Festival is approaching, gray fabric companies are more willing to stock up, and cotton yarn sales are also smoother. In addition, the depreciation of the RMB is accelerating, which greatly reduces the price advantage of imported yarn, which is beneficial to domestic yarn.
However, due to many negative factors in the market, it is expected that cotton prices will not rise sharply before the Spring Festival, and will mainly rise slightly or steadily.
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