Latest events: According to industry news, the polyester market POY 4+2 meeting was held in Xinfengming, Tongxiang on the 21st, and there are certain growth expectations for the POY flat series. Although the specific spirit of the meeting has not been conveyed as of press time, for chemical fiber manufacturers, its purpose is self-evident.
Since the second half of this year, every time the alliance meeting is held, there will be a wave of price increases for polyester filament on the same day or the next day, but their durability varies. Judging from today’s mainstream polyester market trends, stimulated by the conference, some manufacturers’ quotations have already increased, but there are not many varieties that have increased, and the increase is not large.
Review of polyester filament market in the past month
Since mid-to-late October, polyester filament has experienced a large-scale price increase. The average daily increase in quotations from mainstream manufacturers is 50-100 yuan/ton; it has continued its strong upward trend since then. Entering November, stimulated by the POY joint meeting and the surge in upstream costs, the price of polyester filament rose strongly again, and some manufacturers even closed the market and were reluctant to sell. Later, boosted by good news such as low inventory, the price of polyester filament increased sharply. Some mainstream manufacturers have gradually raised their quotations slightly.
There are always thousands of reasons for polyester manufacturers to raise prices. Judging from the current polyester market, the key reasons for polyester manufacturers to seize are these two points.
First, upstream prices are rising and costs are rising
Although polyester filament prices fluctuate from time to time and deviate from the fundamental track, the recent rise in upstream raw material prices has become an important reason for polyester factories to increase prices. First, the PTA spot market once followed the rise in futures prices, but then fell under the pressure of futures. However, the overall price still increased compared with the previous period. As can be seen from the picture above, what is actually more important is the major breakthrough in MEG product prices, which have hit new highs repeatedly. The spot price once exceeded a high of 6,300 yuan/ton; the increase in the past month has reached nearly 900 yuan/ton. .
Second, polyester manufacturers’ inventories are at historically low levels
From the perspective of inventory levels, in the past month, driven by the surge in overall production and sales of the polyester yarn market, the inventory levels of mainstream manufacturers have been at a low level during the year; this is also the “encouragement” for polyester manufacturers to increase prices at will. According to industry inventory data statistics, the current overall polyester market inventory has dropped to around 3-7 days; POY inventory has dropped to around 2-5 days, FDY inventory has dropped to around 4-7 days, and DTY inventory has dropped to 9-19 days About days; some manufacturers’ best-selling specifications are no longer in stock.
Although polyester manufacturers have the confidence to increase prices, can the downstream weaving market really pay for the willful price increases again and again?
It is reported that last weekend, WeChat Moments and major chemical fiber QQ groups issued notices that some weaving companies jointly boycotted the price increase of raw materials; whether it is true or not remains to be verified. However, it is true that weaving manufacturers are increasingly resisting the rising prices of raw material manufacturers.
In fact, the author believes that if polyester manufacturers are really under cost pressure, in order to ensure their own profits, there is nothing wrong with raising prices. However, in recent times, no matter whether it is FDY, POY or DTY products, they have still maintained a relatively high level of profitability.
It is hoped that polyester manufacturers can truly look at the actual situation, grasp the scale, and take care of the downstream sentiment. Only healthy price increases can better improve the overall environment; but if prices are increased arbitrarily away from the fundamental track, I am afraid that it will really suffer more resistance and bitter consequences. <br /
