I still remember that at the beginning of the month, we published an article about viscose reviews, believing that there was still a wave of market trends on the way. The market this week has a slight trend that this wave of market has already begun, but it is currently unclear whether this is a turning point for viscose staple fiber, which has been quiet for more than a month. The viscose market has stopped falling this week and is expected to recover slightly next week.
Price Trend
This week, the viscose staple fiber market price has successfully stopped falling and recovered, and manufacturers’ monthly settlement policies have basically come to an end. In mid-week, manufacturers’ quotations generally increased by 100 yuan, with mid-range quotations at 15,300-15,400 yuan/ton and high-end quotations at 15,500-15,700 yuan/ton. In the second half of the week, the mid-range price was 15,000-15,200 yuan/ton, and the high-end price was 15,300-15,500 yuan/ton. The transaction volume was high, and many manufacturers’ daily production and sales reached 100-200%. In the early stage, low prices below 15,000 yuan/ton were basically banned, and market confidence was restored.
Upstream and downstream analysis
Upstream:Currently, short velvet continues to rise strongly. Shandong Xiajin long velvet is quoted at 6,900-7,100 yuan/ton, and Xinjiang long velvet is 6,000-6,300 yuan/ton. The overall price is still in an upward trend. . The performance of cotton pulp remains unclear, with pulp mills falling into losses due to long-term high costs. Pulp mills are still completing early orders due to low operating conditions, and quotation negotiations for new orders have not yet begun. Prices will be released after the pulp market becomes clearer.
Domestic dissolving pulp is in a stalemate, with negotiation intentions gradually approaching 8,000 yuan/ton, and pulp mills’ shipping willingness is said to be 8,000-8,300 yuan/ton. Negotiations have begun, but the actual transaction or clear quotation is still unclear. Inventory pressure at some pulp mills has increased sharply. The external price of dissolving broadleaf pulp is US$960-970/ton, and downstream purchasing willingness is generally low and the performance is deadlocked. No real offers have been heard yet.
Downstream:As the viscose staple fiber market price stopped falling, many early low prices in the rayon yarn market were banned, and the market price focus also increased. The price of ring-spun 30S rayon yarn produced in Xiaoshan is 19,500-19,700 yuan/ton. The price of core-spun yarn in northern Jiangsu has increased steadily, and shipments are relatively smooth. The market price of imitation rabbit fur 28S in northern Jiangsu is 25,000-25,500 yuan/ton. The current performance of orders is acceptable, and the market predicts that orders will gradually come to an end in the middle to late half of the year.
Market outlook
At present, the atmosphere of viscose staple fiber has improved, market participants are generally optimistic, and downstream procurement has gradually followed suit. The overall production and sales momentum maintained a positive trend yesterday and today, with a general new order signing rate of 80-180%, and the “self-rescue” period some time ago The “incident” has caused viscose factories with small inventories to re-enter the inventory decline channel, and some manufacturers have sufficient orders and even tight shipments.
The New Year is approaching, and factors such as the Double “Twelfth” period, the “Spring Festival”, and “this winter is extremely cold” have provided a positive boost to this market. The strong cotton price has strong support for viscose, but it is still unclear how big the downstream demand will be at the end of the year. What is clear is that the support is greater than the pressure in the short term, and viscose is expected to continue to boost next week. Downstream profits are currently being squeezed, and the boost in rayon yarn may be under great pressure, which will have a certain suppressive effect on the boost in viscose. Generally speaking, stable and rising viscose prices will be the recent trend.
