In the era of “green screen” environmental protection, the decline of ethylene glycol begins

Introduction: Before the results of last week’s bull feast could be savored, the market’s sharp decline on Black Friday left the market full of damage. At the beginning of the week, ethylene glycol even fell below the limit. On Tuesday, commodity futures continued to open a green era, with iron ore, coking coal, coke and other products once again hitting the limit. Affected by this, the ethylene glycol electronic disk responded with a simultaneous decline.
This reversal in market conditions is not closely related to the overall fundamentals. The guiding role of peripheral news and market mentality dominates.
At present, the overall fundamental performance of ethylene glycol is relatively stable. The overall operating load of domestic factories has increased steadily and slightly, benefiting from the rise in product prices. Recently, the operating load of ethylene process and naphtha integrated ethylene glycol has increased steadily, but the overall increase has not yet been fully reflected; while coal-based ethylene glycol The construction start-up is still at a low level, and the new manufacturers are in the trial and commissioning stage, which is not enough to fill the domestic supply in the short term. On the demand side, under the pressure of rising prices of the two major polyester raw materials PTA and MEG, downstream polyester products passively followed suit, and cash flow showed an amplification trend. However, today’s bleak production and sales situation has forced polyester manufacturers to adjust prices, and the enthusiasm for price increases in the industrial chain caused by rising raw materials has gradually subsided. However, it is unlikely that the short-term polyester demand start-up load will drop significantly. Except for the decrease in bottle flake start-up in the traditional off-season, other polyester products are still in the stage of smooth production and sales. In the short term, the performance of downstream polyester will not be negative for the raw material market. Signal.
Looking at the later market, there is no need to worry too much about the fundamentals for the time being, but the directional role of external macro, market mentality and technical aspects cannot be ignored.
First: the influence of national supervision is heating up. The “Double Eleven” night trading was shocking, and regulatory upgrades targeted popular products. Due to the continued overheating of the market, a regulatory storm also descended on many popular products. Last week, the three major futures exchanges all raised transaction fees for black and colored varieties, and raised margins for related varieties. After convening successive coal meetings, the National Development and Reform Commission also investigated the investigation and punishment of illegal trading in thermal coal futures. At the same time, the China Securities Regulatory Commission also issued a notice requiring all futures companies not to engage in capital allocation business or participate in capital allocation business in any form, and not to facilitate capital allocation activities. As a quasi-futures product, it is understandable that ethylene glycol’s product trend will be affected by external news.
Secondly: technical bearish guidance. At present, on the technical level, there are obvious downward signals on the daily and weekly KDJ lines, especially the dead cross trend of the daily KDJ. The MACD indicator shows a divergence signal, and the short-term technical outlook is bearish.
On the whole, there is a high probability that ethylene glycol will fluctuate downward in the short term. Pay attention to the driving force of month-end delivery on the market transaction level.