Recently, the price of cotton yarn has gradually stabilized, and the shipment volume has improved. Although it is not as good as expected during the peak season, the shipment volume has increased compared with before the Mid-Autumn Festival. In addition, the spot price of cotton futures has increased in recent days, and the average price of sales and storage transactions has continued to rise, making the market again controversial about the price trend of cotton yarn in the future. Can the price of cotton yarn rise in the future? As we all know, cotton accounts for about 70% of the cost of cotton yarn, and cotton price plays a key role. The increase in storage prices in recent days may not be truly reflected in the cost of cotton yarn until mid-to-late October. By then, the cost of cotton yarn will be relatively high. Now rise.
From the perspective of the downstream market, after the end of the G20, many people are concerned about the market situation of the downstream market? But as far as the editor knows, since September, it has entered the traditional peak season. But it seems it didn’t come as quickly as expected. The market situation is still weak. What is reflected is the rebound in spot cotton prices, the slowdown in cotton yarn inventory accumulation and the stabilization of prices. However, there is no obvious “Golden Nine and Silver Ten” phenomenon.
In September, the cotton stocking time of textile enterprises is about one month, and the comprehensive index is 32 days. The current cost of cotton storage used by textile enterprises is about 14,000 yuan/ton, which is equivalent to a C32S cost of about 21,000 yuan/ton. In mid-to-late October, the cost of cotton storage used by textile enterprises is about 14,100 yuan/ton, which is equivalent to a C32S cost of about 21,200 yuan/ton. tons, so the spinning costs of textile enterprises are likely to increase in mid-to-late October, but the magnitude will not be large.
Judging from the cost of spinning yarn by textile enterprises, the cost will still decline slightly in late September or early October, but the price of cotton yarn is more likely to remain stable. After the National Day, some textile enterprises may raise the price of cotton yarn, except In addition to the support from the cost of throwing away and storing cotton, the price of new cotton in October also supports the cost of cotton yarn. At present, new cotton has begun to appear on the market. From the perspective of supply and demand fundamentals, the purchase of new cotton is now being carried out. In Xinjiang, according to surveys by industry insiders, the clothes with high clothing points are 6.8-7.0 yuan/kg, and the clothing points with average clothing are 6.5. Around 1.35-1.4 yuan/kg, in general terms, it is basically around 6.5, which is relatively normal. If this price is calculated based on the current cotton seed price of 1.35-1.4 yuan/catties, excluding clothing, water and miscellaneous items, the cost is surprisingly low, only 13150. Yuan/ton, and if we take into account the increased supply of cotton seeds after a large amount of new cotton comes on the market, the price drops to 1.2, which is around 13,650 yuan/ton.
The purchase price of seed cotton has increased compared with last year. The purchase price of Xinjiang seed cotton is 6.5-7 yuan/kg, which is higher than 7 yuan/kg. The quality is significantly better than last year. According to the current price of Xinjiang cotton, which has started to be sold sporadically in the mainland, it is expected to be above 15,000 yuan/ton. It is expected that the selling price will fall back in October, but the extent may not be large, and it may be above 14,500 yuan/ton. Based on this calculation, C32S The cost is about 21,500 yuan/ton or more, which is also higher than the current cost. Therefore, whether textile companies use reserve cotton or market purchases new cotton in mid-to-late October, the cost may be higher than the current cost.
From a cost perspective, there is demand for price increases in mid-to-late October, but the magnitude is not large. What will happen if the price of cotton yarn does not rise? If the price of cotton yarn does not rise in mid-to-late October, then the profits of textile companies will be compressed. At present, the textile company C32S can still maintain a profit of 300-500 yuan/ton. If the price of cotton yarn does not rise in October, then the textile companies are likely to maintain a small loss or operate at a loss. , this depends on the market demand.
Although there is demand for rising cotton yarn prices in terms of cost in October, inventory limits the increase. Currently, the cotton yarn inventory of textile enterprises is about 24 days, which is at an upper-medium level. Although demand has improved recently and inventory has declined slightly, production and sales have not yet reached the level of ideal level.
So will there be a concentrated release of cotton yarn demand in October? First of all, the cotton yarn inventory of the spinning company can still be supplied in a short time; on the other hand, the cotton yarn stocking in the weaving factory is about half a month away, and it is not necessary to purchase it in the short term. The cotton cloth inventory in the weaving factory is also about 24 days, which is enough for short-term supply. Therefore, Judging from the inventory link, it can still be sustained for a while.
In addition, textile companies that currently produce high-quality cotton yarn and medium-to-high-count cotton yarn are very enthusiastic about purchasing new cotton. There may be a wave of centralized purchasing by October, which will also support the spot price of cotton. Generally speaking, the cost of pure cotton yarn is nine There is a high probability that prices will remain stable at the end of the month and early October. However, the cost of pure cotton yarn increased slightly in mid-to-late October, and there is a certain demand for increase; however, upstream and downstream inventories limit the increase.
