Oh my God, PX actually suffers from “depression”!

Recently, due to Qiao Renliang’s accident, depression has once again been exaggerated by the audience. In fact, some people in the chemical industry are suffering from this disease – paraxylene (PX). Looking at the PX trend in September, not only did it not usher in the expected “Golden Nine” season, but the overall performance was generally weak: the PX market remained flat in the early part of September, and prices were mostly range-bound; in mid-to-late September, it was unbearable The center of gravity has suffered a series of setbacks due to pressure from many parties. It is completely a trajectory of depression turning from mild to severe.


In the third quarter, the high price of CFR China PX was US$835.5/ton and the low was US$792.5/ton; the high price of FOB Korean PX was US$814.5/ton and the low was US$761.5/ton. Especially since August, the Asian PX market has become increasingly stable, basically maintaining a range of $20 and fluctuating within the box. Until mid-to-mid September, the center of gravity finally turned downward due to the dual pressure of cost-end crude oil and loose supply and demand fundamentals.


The depressive symptoms of PX are not only reflected in the price, but also product profits are affected. It can be clearly seen from the above figure that the profit margin of PX in the third quarter is basically in a downward trend, especially after entering September, it fell to the level of less than 100 US dollars, which was the low point in the second half of the year. The main reason for the above phenomenon is that PX is in a deserted period, the pressure of raw material naphtha is relieved due to oversupply in the market, and Asian gasoline profits have rebounded to the high point in the past three months, and the overall price of Japanese naphtha has shown With the accompanying ups and downs, the price difference between the two gradually narrowed, and PX cash flow continued to flow out.
So what is the culprit behind this round of “depressive” market conditions in PX? The author analyzes three reasons: First, as the U.S. and Japanese central bank monetary policy meetings and the Algeria International Energy Forum approach, the recent trend of crude oil has become increasingly uncertain, and investors continue to worry about the recurrence of black swan events, especially at this stage, although the Federal Reserve is raising interest rates in September. It has always been unfavorable. However, inflation and employment levels basically meet the conditions for raising interest rates, so participants still cannot feel at ease. International oil prices have neither upward nor downward momentum. Secondly, the PTA aspect is due to the short-term intertwined game, and although domestic equipment is subject to maintenance and restart plans, it is basically a short-term change of 1-2 weeks and has limited impact on the market, so the overall current price is mostly in the overall trend. Thirdly, the market mentality is becoming more cautious. With the G20 summit coming to an end, changes in domestic PX equipment are coming to an end. However, what follows is the intensive maintenance situation in Japan and South Korea, the major import countries in Asia, and the mentality of participants inevitably turns to wait and see. In summary, there are many doubts and worries, and it is difficult for PX to escape the symptom of “depression”.