Since late November, the Zheng Cotton CF1705 contract has been oscillating within a wide range of 15,600-16,500 yuan/ton (the center of gravity continues to shift downward); although the replenishment efforts of cotton textile mills and traders inside and outside Xinjiang are lower than expected, they support the high spot price of cotton. No less; coupled with the support of practical factors such as the “inefficient” transportation of Xinjiang cotton out of Xinjiang from October to December and the fact that real estate cotton has become a “supporting role”, some cotton processing companies and operators in Xinjiang are stuck in whether to save cotton to wait for an increase or a decline. Bao Weian’s troubles. Compared with the plummeting domestic cotton and cotton spot markets from September 2015 to April 2016, life for ginners and cotton-related enterprises is much better this year.
According to the author’s investigation, as of early December, the direct cost of grade 3128 lint cotton in Xinjiang cotton enterprises is about 15,000-15,300 yuan/ton (including machine-picked cotton, and individual ginners in Kashgar and Aksu cotton areas may have lower than 15,000 yuan/ton). If the financial cost is 350-400 yuan/ton (calculated based on three months, the monthly commercial loan interest is about 8%), the comprehensive cost of lint cotton in the warehouse is about 15,400-15,700 yuan/ton, and based on the current gross weight transaction price of cotton in Xinjiang stations, it is 15,600- Calculated at 16,000 yuan/ton, although cotton companies do not have much profit, they will not suffer losses. This is the reason why cotton processing companies and merchants in Xinjiang are hesitant and hesitant about whether to sell or keep cotton.
The author’s view is to “sell more and save less” and try to reduce operating risks in the first half of 2017. Among them, “Double 29” and “Double 30” hand-picked and machine-picked cotton can be considered to be postponed, but 3128, 2128 and more It is better to choose low-grade lint or bag it safely. You can consider it from the following perspectives:
First, how much can cotton spot prices rise in 2017? Judging from the sales time, domestic cotton demand and consumption basically stagnated from the Spring Festival in mid-January to mid-February 2017. The state-owned cotton rotation began on March 6. Therefore, if the shipment and sales to Xinjiang are not concentrated before mid-January, For cotton, we can only have the opportunity to wait until March and April. Calculating the financial expenses for the past five months, by then the “Double 28” grade domestic price of 16,300-16,600 yuan/ton will be the same as the current price;
Second, foreign cotton puts pressure on the price of domestic cotton. At present, the cost of Australian cotton under 1% customs clearance for the shipping schedule from April to June 2017 is about 14,800-15,000 yuan/ton, which is very competitive compared with Xinjiang cotton; in addition, it is estimated that as of the end of December 2016, the 2016 The annual cotton import quota will be extended to more than 200,000 tons until the end of February 2017. Coupled with the 1% tariff quota of 894,000 tons in 2017, the quota will be relatively sufficient until at least July 2017;
Third, the cotton reserves are not unusable. Judging from the transactions and feedback from textile mills from May to September 2016, the quality and spinnability of reserve cotton are still very good. Some large mills spinning 40S and above cotton yarns are also actively bidding and acquiring goods, and have not paid much attention to them. Product contract delivery and order receipt have a significant impact. Some large factories even retain cotton import quotas and only purchase reserve cotton and Xinjiang cotton with cotton spinning. Considering that the reserve cotton wheel output in 2017 is sufficient, although the amount to meet the demand for combed yarn, high-quality cotton, and high-count yarn cannot be determined, the replenishment effect on the supply is outstanding;
Fourth, cotton processing enterprises are still under financial pressure. A large number of cotton ginning factories in Xinjiang used loans from the Agricultural Development Bank of China, credit cooperatives and other commercial banks. They had to repay the loans on a monthly basis and in proportion. Finally, they achieved “double settlement and zero payment” at the end of August 2017. It can be said that the financial pressure follows them everywhere. , whether cotton can survive is questionable. In addition, compared with cotton companies that are self-owned, financed, or jointly acquired, it is not easy to occupy the acquisition funds for nearly 10 months;
Fifth, the pressure on downstream products such as cotton yarn and gray fabrics has increased. At present, the price difference between Indian and Pakistani yarns and domestic yarns at the port has reached 800-1,200 yuan/ton. The influx of imported yarns into the domestic market is overwhelming. Small and medium-sized cotton spinning mills that produce low-count yarns of C32S and below have responded by reducing production and suspending production; India The delay in the launch of cotton, the postponement of exports, and the elimination of hidden dangers in domestic monetary policy, Indian cotton acquisition, processing and export are on the right track, and the competitiveness of Indian yarn is “only strong but not weak”; coupled with the sharp fluctuations in the RMB exchange rate, the export situation is becoming increasingly complex. How do cotton yarn and gray fabrics respond to rising cotton prices?
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