According to the survey, the market prices of 1.4D domestic polyester staple fiber and 1.5D viscose staple fiber since November have been concentrated at 7200-7400 yuan/ton and 15100-15300 yuan/ton. The price difference with grade 3128 cotton is 8500 yuan/ton respectively. , more than 800 yuan/ton. This has triggered doubts and concerns among cotton-related enterprises, research institutions and textile authorities about “increasing chemical fiber and reducing cotton” in the procurement of cotton textile enterprises.
Considering that the export of Xinjiang cotton in October and November was supported by multiple favorable factors such as insufficient transportation, peripheral bulk futures commodities, cotton enterprises’ centralized replenishment, and high lint costs, the delivery price of Xinjiang cotton from underground warehouses is generally 16,000-16,500 yuan/ton. (The market price of high-quality state-reserved Xinjiang cotton released in 2016 is also close to 16,000 yuan/ton). For most small and medium-sized spinning mills, weaving mills, fabric factories and garment factories, and foreign trade companies receiving orders, cotton The label of “high cost, low profit, high risk” will be difficult to remove in the short term.
As we all know, the cotton market trend is closely related to the market situation of polyester staple fiber. Most polyester staple fiber is used to replace cotton to produce yarn. Under the influence of substitution, the price correlation coefficient of cotton and polyester staple fiber is It is quite high. Therefore, the price difference between polyester staple fiber and cotton is one of the important factors affecting the market situation of polyester staple fiber. Historical data can show that the normal price difference between polyester staple fiber and cotton should be about 3,000 yuan/ton, or The price of polyester staple fiber is about 20% lower than that of cotton. When the price difference deviates from the normal range, textile companies can freely allocate the proportion of cotton and polyester staple fiber within the scope of the order. However, since this year, the price difference between polyester staple fiber and cotton has been as high as 7,000-8,000 yuan/ton. Under such circumstances, textile companies are bound to increase the use of polyester staple fiber. From this point of view, the fluctuation of cotton prices directly affects the demand for polyester staple fiber market, thereby boosting or boosting the price changes of polyester staple fiber. The role of constraints.
The editor judges that the operation of reducing cotton and increasing polyester by small and medium-sized textile enterprises has been going on since October, and the impact on the consumption of low-grade and low-quality cotton will be reflected in the first half of 2017; while large-scale textile enterprises will focus on product stability and customer satisfaction. From the perspective of stability and spinning profits, the phenomenon of increased polyester will not be very prominent. In terms of consumption, the decline of cotton and the growth of chemical fibers require great attention but there is no need to exaggerate!
So what are the reasons that prompt small and medium-sized textile enterprises to adjust their raw material procurement and product structure? The editor’s analysis is as follows:
First of all, the profit situation of polyester-cotton yarn is significantly better than that of pure cotton yarn. Taking T/C 45S (65/35) yarn as an example (medium and high-count polyester-cotton yarns are more representative), the spinning cost is 7300*0.65+16000*0.35=10345 yuan/ton; because polyester short fiber spinning loss is very low , so the comprehensive spinning loss is calculated as 2%, the processing fee is 5,500 yuan/ton, and the ex-factory cost is about: 10345*1.02+5500≈16,050 yuan/ton; consider the need to pay the input and output tax difference, two months of capital costs, etc. The total cost is no more than 17,000 yuan/ton (yarn input and output taxes have been unified in some provinces); and the current quotations for T/C 65/35 45S yarn in the mainland market are concentrated at 17,600-17,700 yuan/ton, and the net profit of the yarn mill is at least More than 600 yuan/ton;
Secondly, domestic C32S and higher count cotton yarns do not have any cost or quality advantages over India, Pakistan, Vietnam, etc. The market for low-end and low-count yarns is inevitable. Some small and medium-sized spinning mills have to make arrangements in advance. Compared with cotton yarns , polyester-cotton blended yarn and polyester-viscose blended yarn are less impacted by Southeast Asia, Bangladesh and other countries;
Thirdly, in November, small and medium-sized cotton textile mills are facing increasing financial pressure. Loan repayment, material fee settlement, year-end wages, bonuses and other expenditures have forced manufacturers to reduce the amount of cash occupied by raw materials as much as possible and realize the realization of gauze inventory as soon as possible. And external credit and debt are withdrawn. The unit price of polyester staple fiber and other chemical fiber raw materials is low and the fluctuation range is small. Spinners mainly focus on maintaining production.
Some cotton spinning mills in Henan, Shandong, Hebei, Jiangsu and other places said that reducing cotton and increasing polyester is only a short-term behavior. After all, there is not much room for domestic and foreign sales of polyester-cotton yarn and polyester-viscose yarn, and the demand has not really picked up. Once domestic sales start from January to March 2017, Cotton prices have dropped to a reasonable price, spinning pure cotton yarn with counts of C32S and below is profitable and sales are smooth. Textile companies will still return to the production pattern of mainly cotton yarn and supplemented by blended yarn.
Extended reading: The substitution relationship between cotton and polyester staple fiber
Polyester staple fiber is a fiber obtained by cutting polyester (polyethylene terephthalate, PET) by polymerizing PTA and MEG and then spinning into tows. PET is in the shape of rice grains and comes in various varieties. 75% is used for polyester for chemical fibers. According to the requirements of the textile industry, polyester short fibers and polyester filaments are manufactured.
Strength: The strength of polyester fiber is nearly 1 times higher than cotton and 3 times higher than wool, so polyester fabric is strong and durable.
Heat resistance: It can be used at 70~1700C. It has the best heat resistance and thermal stability among synthetic fibers.
Elasticity: Polyester elastic joint�Wool has better wrinkle resistance than other fibers. The fabric does not wrinkle and has good stability.
Abrasion resistance:The abrasion resistance of polyester is second only to nylon, ranking second among synthetic fibers.
Water absorption: Polyester has low water absorption and moisture regain and good insulation properties. However, due to low water absorption, large static electricity generated by friction leads to poor dyeing performance.
The products are mainly used in the cotton spinning industry. They are spun alone or blended with cotton, viscose fiber, linen, wool, vinylon, etc. The resulting yarn is mainly used for clothing weaving. It can also be used for home decoration fabrics, packaging fabrics, filling materials and Thermal insulation material
