As a cotton-based chemical fiber material and regenerated cellulose fiber, viscose staple fiber has experienced rapid growth in value in recent years. There was even talk of sticky shorts replacing cotton. Industry insiders boldly predict: During 2020-2021, China’s viscose staple fiber output will exceed China’s cotton! So, will viscose staple fiber replace cotton? How to interpret the sticky short market conditions? What is the price trend of the viscose market in 2017?
Recently, relevant people in the industry visited Shandong and visited many manufacturers and traders from fiber to gray cloth. As the gathering place of my country’s spinning industry, Shandong is also an active area for cotton and cotton yarn trade. The core lies in the textile industry. The processing and manufacturing of semi-finished products in the chain links the upstream and downstream, and the industry has matured. In this way, there is quite a lot to gain and learn.
1. Fiber link: market influence is expanding
At present, the total production capacity of viscose fiber in Shandong Province is around 520,000 tons. Next year, with the improvement of Yamei Company’s technical transformation, the actual production capacity may be further expanded. At the same time, Yinying Company’s new production capacity in Xinjiang is also in full progress and is expected to be completed in 2017. It will be put into production by the end of the year. In the first three quarters of this year, under the circumstances of stable demand and rising profits, it has basically maintained full capacity operation. As for Dragonsea, as the supply of raw materials has gradually stabilized and other reasons, the upstream and downstream feedback on quality improvement has been more obvious this year.
At present, fiber enterprises in Shandong have a large customer base: they are deeply involved in the local area of Shandong, from Northeast China to Fujian, and are also involved in the export market. In 2015, the proportion of the export market was about 12%, and this year it is expected to be about 13.5%. At present, local fiber companies in Shandong mainly produce conventional products, with annual output of black silk, flame retardant and other products ranging from 10,000 to 20,000 tons.
During the visit, each company said that the actual inventory was not large, and the spot supply was relatively tight. Periodic adjustments occurred due to factors such as relatively high downstream demand, funds, and prices at the end of the year. However, due to rising costs, growing demand, and the difficulty of rising cotton prices, Against the background of falling prices, the market situation in 2017 is relatively optimistic.
2. Yarn and gray fabric links: Quality and technical improvements have greatly improved
The production capacity of rayon and rayon fabrics in Shandong is mainly concentrated in eastern Texas and central Weifang, Gaomi and other regions, and there is a lot of rayon fabric production capacity downstream. The current overall estimate is that the number of viscose-containing yarn spindles in Shandong is about 5 million spindles, and high-density and its The surrounding area is expected to be above 3/5. The output of viscose blended yarn is relatively large. Especially since the second half of this year, many pure spinning factories have switched to viscose blended yarn. In terms of gray fabrics, many small factories have indeed stopped intermittently. Production is reduced, but factories with more than 200 cloth machines basically maintain relatively stable production.
In terms of new production capacity and new products, Shandong is slower than Jiangsu and Zhejiang. Yarns are mainly traditional rotor spinning, ring spinning, siro spinning, and compact siro spinning. The prices of many factories with the same count are higher than Prices in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are slightly lower, but at the same time, many yarn mills have switched to core-spun yarn and hemp yarn products. Some factories have also added vortex spinning yarn production capacity, and the price performance of strongly twisted yarn products is also relatively good during certain periods.
Most of the customers for rayon gray fabrics in the Gaomi area are in the Shaoxing area. The annual market purchase period and off-season are more obvious. Customer arrears were more serious in 2013-2014. In the past one or two years, with the increase in risk awareness and relatively loose funds, This phenomenon has improved.
The current electricity consumption of yarn and gray fabric in high-density areas is about 0.75 yuan/kWh. Generally, the salary of three-shift workers is 4,000-5,000 yuan/month. Because the overall wage level is relatively high, there are many migrant workers from Henan, Anhui and other regions. Compared with Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions, the overall cost advantage is not obvious. The current comprehensive production cost of R30S yarn is 4200-4500 yuan/ton, and the production cost of R30S shuttle gray fabric is 1.2-1.3 yuan/meter.
3. Some enterprises mainly engaged in import and export business: significant exchange gains
This year, the price difference between domestic and foreign prices for rayon products has changed significantly. After the third quarter, due to the rise in domestic prices, many external orders are difficult to operate. The currency depreciation of rayon products is also obvious due to the currency of competitor Indonesia, and there is greater pressure on export competition. However, The recent exchange gains in the early US dollar settlement part have been relatively obvious.
Overall, the rayon industry chain in Shandong is still very different from that in the South in terms of some systems and market environment. In recent years, there have been many difficulties in operation, but there are still certain bright spots in the market.
Of course, the trajectory of history tells us that all developments must follow certain patterns. Let’s first take a look at the trend of viscose staple fiber in the past four years. In fact, the price of viscose staple fiber has been declining instead of rising every October. This is mainly due to the characteristics of viscose staple fiber. Since the fabrics woven from viscose staple fiber are mostly cooler, such as rayon, bamboo fiber, and modal fabrics, downstream procurement is mostly used to make spring and summer clothing. Therefore, when the market enters the sales season for medium-thick fabrics,�As a raw material, the market demand for viscose staple fiber is not as good as before, which has dragged down its price trend to a certain extent.
What everyone is concerned about is the relationship between viscose and cotton. Looking back on the past 10 or 20 years, the price trends of cotton and viscose are very close, but the production capacity of cotton is no longer growing. If you need more comfortable fibers and cotton performance Close to fiber, there is no doubt that viscose is the best choice.
From 2005 to 2010, the price of viscose staple fiber has been higher than the price of cotton. However, after the national purchase and storage policy began, the price of viscose staple fiber has been declining, but the price of cotton has always remained at a high position. Recently, Everyone is beginning to pay attention to cotton futures, but there was very little attention in the past. Many people hope that the price of cotton futures will affect the viscose market. The editor believes that viscose will have its own market trend based on the development of downstream markets and product development. Maybe the price of viscose will be higher than that of cotton in the next few years. This is a normal phenomenon.
Generally speaking, the current profits of the viscose industry are very high, which may encourage others to enter this industry to increase production capacity and increase supply. If demand remains unchanged, prices will continue to fall, but in the next year and a half won’t happen. Therefore, the editor predicts that the average price of viscose next year will be higher than this year.
